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FEMA

Trump Disaster 25.1: Texas Hill Country and Franconia Notch

July 14, 2025
by Peter Feinman
Willey House and Safety Refuge, Crawford Notch

The two disasters are separated by 99 years. One, a post-rainfall avalanche that resulted in the death of 9 godly people in Franconia Notch in the White Mountains of New Hampshire. The second a post-rainfall flood that resulted in a still increasing number of people in Flash Flood Alley in the Texas Hill country including many young girls attending a Christian summer camp.

CRAWFORD NOTCH

Crawford Notch, a deep valley in New Hampshire’s White Mountains, unexpectedly became famous in 1826 when nine lives were lost in a catastrophic avalanche nearby. These godly people were not supposed to die. When the storm occurred and the avalanche headed for the Willey home, the residents apparently sought to seek safety by abandoning the house for what they thought would be a safer location in a sturdier structure. We know the abandonment was sudden because the Bible in the house was found open. Of course, we cannot know for sure what the people were thinking since they all died. We do know that the house was the safe spot as the avalanche went around it on both sides leaving it an island of safety amidst the surrounding doom. We also know that the place of refuge sought by the Willeys did not escape the torrent and ended up being their death place. The safe haven they thought they had fled to instead had placed them in the very path of the disaster.

A View of the Mountain Pass Called the Notch of the White Mountains by Thomas Cole (1839) National Gallery of Art

The tragedy of these godly people fleeing for safety only to be struck down instead drew such luminaries as Thomas Cole, Nathaniel Hawthorne, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Daniel Webster, and Henry David Thoreau. To understand how such an event could have occurred challenged the leading thinkers and artists of the time. Time marches on and today the disaster is but a footnote in American history that even the scholars ignore, but in its time it was an unfathomable tragedy certainly to the northern elite.

TEXAS HILL COUNTRY

There is not an exact parallel between what happened in 1826 in Franconia Notch and the Texas Hill Country in 2025. Still there are enough lessons to be learned from both events. Part of the shock from the flood in the present is the presence of summer camps, particularly a Christian girl’s camp that catered to the well-to-do. Three generations of descendants of President Lyndon Johnson camped at Camp Mystic. Former First Lady Laura Bush once had been a counselor there. Disasters like this one are not supposed to happen. When you send your kids to school you expect that they will return home alive. Same for summer camp.

One big difference between the events of 1826 and 2025 is the role of the government, local state, and federal. What is the significance for the future given the actions governments have already taken or are in the process of taking?

1. Federal research into climate change has been gutted. That does not mean that such research would have precisely pinpointed the flooding which occurred in Texas. But the more such research highlights the instability and magnitude of the disasters to come, the more likely we are to actually do something to mitigate the impact. Climate change is making extreme rainfall events more frequent and severe. Time is compressed and emergency managers have less and less time to make life and death decisions. As a general rule one doesn’t buy beachfront property on Third Street. What do you think happened to First and Second Streets? Same for Flash Flood Alley.

2. The National Weather Service has been gutted. A workforce of 4000 people has been reduced to approximately 3400 so far. As we recall from the famous image of Musk with a chainsaw, there was no intelligent thought behind the reductions. Attempts to ameliorate the situation are currently underway with the hiring of 126 people. The freeze on travel expense also complicates the efforts of staff to meet on location with state and local officials.

The office responsible for some of the hardest hit areas was short a senior hydrologist, staff forecaster, and meteorologist. There were vacancies in the nearby office as well. Part of the shortage was due to people taking early retirement in the cutbacks sponsored by the federal government. This includes Paul Yura, who held the critical position of the warning coordination meteorologist who took an unplanned leave of absence on April 30. This is a pivotal position in an emergency. The individual was not replaced. What a cost saving! The Trump Muskacre strikes again.

3. The Federal Emergency Management Agency is scheduled to be mothballed with responsibilities turned over to the states or other parts of the federal government. Obviously the states are not ready to take on this unfunded mandate. They don’t have the money or people or infrastructure to take on these responsibilities. This year FEMA has lost over 20% of its permanent staff. These include the most experienced, field ready responders. As for the temporary employees, there is after all a hurricane season along with wildfires, those contracts will end soon.

Contracts at call centers ended July 5 without being renewed. The numbers tell the story of the increase calls due to the flood and the decrease response ratio due to the reductions in staff.

July 5 calls: 3027 with 99.7% response
July 6 calls: 2363 with 35.8% response
July 7 calls: 16,419 with 15.8% response.

Date search and rescue teams deployed: July 7.

Unfortunately the problem the problems with FEMA extend right to the top. The president consistently refers to the flood as an unavoidable act of nature. Or “a hundred year catastrophe” the likes of which he has never seen before. Right now even as I write this post resiliency plans for lower Manhattan are underway to prevent a recurrence of Sandy. I see the related construction; one of the members of the Lower Manhattan Historical Association who lives in the area attends the public meetings. Somehow Trump knows about 9/11 but not Sandy (2012).

FEMA is part of the Department of Homeland Security? The head of that department is more concerned with her wardrobe and Foxhub appearances than actually managing disasters about which she knows nothing. Kristi Noem said “We are going to eliminate FEMA.” Acting Director Cameron Hamilton had been pushed out in May when he testified to Congress that the agency was vital to communities in their greatest time of need. David Richardson, who has led FEMA since declared in June that he was not aware that the country even has a hurricane season. He has no experience in emergency management; nor has he been visible despite the tradition of the FEMA manager meeting at the site with local officials.

Now Noem personally has to sign off on all expenses over$100,000, undoubtedly to cut down on waste, fraud, and inefficiency. That paltry amount does not go far plus she might get writer’s cramp and need an auto-signature device to keep up with the requests. It may also be related to the bankrupting of the agency to support ICE. As to how she has cut through the paperwork of the old FEMA and streamlined it, it would be interesting if she could specify exactly what she did in an organization she knows nothing about. Of course, if you ask, then according to our President:

Only a bad person would ask a question like that. To be honest with you, I don’t know who you are [a local reporter], but only a very evil person would ask a question like that [on behalf of local families and the lack of warning alerts].

For Representative Chip “Cut More, Cut More, Cut More” Roy, the flood would be his worst nightmare except he has to praise Trump and he has to support cutbacks.

A presidential pattern may be developing here:

Chainsaw the actual workers with no intelligent thought behind the actions
Fire people who dare to speak the truth
Hire incompetents who will be inept in their jobs and fail at the moment of truth
Provide 100% support to the inept and incompetent but loyal people you selected and declare as evil or bad anyone who questions it.

And it is only the beginning of July before the big hurricanes occur.

It is not as if flooding was an unknown event in the Texas Hill Country. Kerr County had debated the need for a more extensive warning system along the Guadalupe River aka Flash Flood Alley. Little to nothing was done. For a county of 50,000 people with a budget of $67 million, it is no surprise that it could not handle the necessary work without outside assistance. The same applies to other rural counties throughout the state if not the country. The state has a backlog of $54 BILLION in flood management projects. But while that number keeps growing the state approved $51 BILLION in property tax cuts.

4. Health Care – Let us not forget the pending cuts to Medicaid and the potential closure of small rural hospitals. Something to look forward to.

The more and more disasters occur, the less and less the federal government is or will be able to cope. Trump Disaster 25.1 is the first of many. At the very moment we expect the federal government to be there to rescue us and help us, is the very moment that it is being gutted. The Texas Hill Country flood exposes the shortcoming of leadership on multiple levels. It forces one to follow threads and connect dots to see the full picture of the price Americans are paying for ineptitude and incompetence. Good thing the MAGA base only cares about Epstein and not about flood control. At least the invasion of Los Angeles is going well.

Information for the blog is from:

Health care; “’Tears my Heart to Pieces’: North Carolina Braces for Medicaid Cuts” Eduardo Medina, NYT July 7, 2025 print

“As Floodwaters Struck, Key Roles We Unfilled at Local Weather Offices,” Christopher Flavelle, NYT July 7, 2025 print.

Camp’s Agony Is Felt Deeply across Texas,” Ruth Graham and Edgar Sandoval, front page NYT July 7, 2025 print.

“We Are Not Prepared to Face the Next Disaster,” MaryAnn Tierney, op-ed, NYT July 8, 2025 print’

“County in Texas Rejected System for Flood Alerts,” Jesus Jiménez, Margarita Birningham, Danny Hakim, Mike Baker, front page, NYT, July 8 2025 print

“In Flooded Texas, Questions Emerge about FEMA’s Role and Future,” Maxine Joselow, NYT July 10 2025 print

“Researchers Go on Unpaid Leave as Climate Funds Area Cut,” Rebecca Dzombak, NYT July 10, 2025, print.

“As the Texas Floodwaters Rose, One Key Voice was Silent,” Zeynep Tuferci, op-ed NYT July 10, 2025 print

“Trump Visit Sites of Texas Flooding as Administration Is Facing Scrutiny,” Shawn McCresh, NYT July 12, 2025 print.

“After Emergency, Trump Changes Tune on Need for FEMA,” Luke Broadwater and Shawn McCresh, NYT July 12, 2025, print.

FEMA Did Not Answer Thousands of Flood Survivors’ Calls for Aid,” Maxine Joselow, NYT July 13, 2025 print.

Trump Muskacre: Inauguration Day to Liberation Day

April 22, 2025
by Peter Feinman
The Trump Muskacre

The Trump Muskacre will become a distinct period in American history. True it continues to unfold so determining the true cost of the purported cost-savings project will take time. But it appears that its days are waning although its affects will be ongoing. Ostensibly it is commissioned to detect cost savings, inefficiencies and waste in the federal government in the amount of $2 trillion. In practice it brought a chainsaw to the federal government. It did so except perhaps based on the government programs and departments Trump does not like and then brutalizes them devoid of any intelligent thought.

In this Trump Muskacre, there was no indication of any identification of fraud, waste, or inefficiencies. Instead, its accomplishments are in imagination and ignorance. It has unleashed no-nothings on the government except for the desire to download personal data on American citizens and perhaps to make databases accessible to Russians and who know who else. Its alleged savings fall far short of the stated goal and are inaccurate. They display ignorance about how the government operates and a lack of desire to learn.

Still, there are lessons We the People can learn from the Trump Muskacre.

AREAS NOT TOUCHED

The areas not touched in the Trump Muskacre are an indicator of the goals of the assault.

“The Big Federal Contracts Musk’s Team Hasn’t Touched” NYT 3/7/25 full page article

“Psst, Musk, Look Over Hear” NYT 3/8/25 Michael Grunwald – Department of Agriculture

“Budget Ax May Benefit Contractors” NYT 3/15/25

The ten highest paid consulting firms scheduled to receive $65 billion in fees this year.
The government has cancelled few large contracts so far.
The increase in cutbacks up will increase the reliance on private firms.

The cutbacks have been imposed on the people who need help the most and where research can make the most difference.

HUMANITARIAN

“America Is Silent on the World’s Worst Humanitarian Crisis” Nicholas Kristof March 20, 2025

“the Trump administration is now cutting back on humanitarian assistance, aggravating the situation” in Sudan. Soup kitchens are closed

“Our cutting of humanitarian means more children starving, and our silence about the U.A.E. probably means more atrocities.”

“Feds no longer offering free COVID home tests” USA Today March 19, 2025

“Experts Doubt Kennedy Timetable on Autism Cause” NYT April 12, 2025

“Children With Cholera Die Seeking Aid After U.S. Cuts” NYT April 12, 2025

This list could be expanded exponentially. It only increases with each passing day. While big contracts and agriculture are off limits, the people in need at home and abroad have suffered the most from the assault. Indeed scientific research seems to be a particularly favorite target whether it is directly by the government or funded by it at a university. These excludes all the cultural institutions who are being decimated either directly as federal organizations or indirectly as small museums, historical societies, and arts organizations throughout the country who receive federal funding. It used to be said that the Pentagon shared the wealth on large contracts nationwide to individual Congressional districts. The Trump Muskacre works in reverse: it spreads the pain nationally or wherever there are day-care centers or libraries. And this excludes national programs like Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and Veterans.

DOES THE RIGHT HAND KNOW WHAT THE LEFT HAND IS DOING?

“DOGE Cuts Hobble Experts in Moon and Mars Landing” (NYT April 16, 2025)

GPS doesn’t work so well on Mars and the Moon. In its place is the Astrogeology Science, part of the U.S. Geological Survey Center in the Department of the Interior. So in case the United States wanted to return to the Moon before China arrives or wanted to go to Mars, a Musk goal, there are people charged with mapping the landing sites and locating the hidden water-ice deposits that would make the journey a success. At least there were. And when the experienced people left due to retirement offers or simply being cut, they take that experience with them. Score one for China.

It’s a little like mandating k-12 schools to do something and then eliminating the Department of Education which would monitor it.

“A Story about the Environment that Almost Had a Happy Ending” (NYT March 23, 2025)

This article is about the restoration of the Klamath River valley through dam removal. It would bring back salmon and the small farms that have been suffering for so long. Just as these small rural communities and the Klamath Tribes of Oregon were on the brink of success from funding authorized in 2021 under President Biden, the funding was suspended. So close but so far away.

“Musk’s NOAA Staffing Cuts Put Salmon Harvests as Risk” (NYT April 11. 2025)

The Chinook salmon ecosystem is at risk. This affects tribal, commercial, and recreational fishing and they are a main source of food for endangered whale.

“But this year, almost a dozen hatcheries in the Puget Sound region are in limbo because a single employee from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration was terminated in February.”

This example is but one that the elimination of the scientific research at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. This cessation was of scientific work comes on the centennial of the infamous Scopes Trial as a sign of how much things haven’t changed. We may not only be marching back to the 1950s in lifestyles and to 1932 in the financial markets but to the 1920s. If you were an up and coming scientist why would you want to come here assuming you were even allowed into the country?

SOLUTIONS

Suppose we were serious about wanting to cut waste, reduce inefficiency, and save money, what would we do?

“Don’t Kill Fema. Find a Way to Fix It” Senator Peter Welch NYT op-ed January 28, 2025

Welch shows there is another way. It is slower, less flashy, and smaller, but it would get the job done. He agrees with President Trump that the Federal Emergency Management Agency is broken and needs serious reform. But he thinks it is crucial that FEMA helps all Americans in times of chaos and crisis. All Americans deserve to know that Washington will have their back when disaster strikes

He recommends what needs to change is the agency’s long-term recovery process, which kicks in months after the floodwaters recede. There is far too much delay and bureaucracy. More control, leadership and resources must be given to local governments to ensure that disaster recovery efforts are carried out in a timely way. He notes that administrative costs have greatly outpaced the distribution of disaster aid in Vermont.

One notes that in the Trump Muskacre, there have been no recommendations about how to streamline operations to make them more efficient. All there has been has been the elimination of projects and people.

Others have noted the need to end business as usual.

In the Sean Duffy Transportation Secretary confirmation, he noted that another priority is to reduce the red tape that “slows critical infrastructure projects.”  (“Senate conforms Trump picks Bessent, Duff7” USA Today January 29, 2025).

“Russell Vought Is Probably the Most Important Person in Trump 2.0” Damon Linker NYT January 26, 2025

Strangely enough, even Russell Vought of all people offers sage advice.

What we need are not plans to burn down the federal bureaucracy — or to transform the presidency into a quasi-authoritarian office empowered to micromanage regulatory policy across the entirety of the executive branch. We need smart ideas for incremental reforms that make the bureaucracy at once more nimble and more humble.

DEMOCRAT FAILURES

The Democrats bring years of failure to the problem of government management.

“Farewell to Foreign Aid as We Know it” Farah Stockman NYT op-ed March 22, 2025

“If you think the Biden administration’s withdrawal from Afghanistan was bad, consider the chaos and death since this administration’s abrupt withdrawal from the entire world.”

We do need to re-imagine foreign aid. It should be leaner and less bureaucratic. It should be based on partnerships that respond to local needs, not pronouncements from Washington. The first step is the acknowledging that the old system had flaws. “Let’s be honest. U.S.A.I.D. could be inefficient and wasteful.”

– Congress, loaded up U.S.A.I.D. with burdensome regulations.
– Year after year grants and conflicts flowed to the same American behemoths that perfected the art of federal fund raising – rent, overhead, salaries and not local partners.
– Local groups are far more cost-effective and attuned to what communities need.

The Democrats did nothing to address these shortcomings leaving it to MAGAs who have been clamoring for reductions/eliminations to fill the void.

“The Republican Party’s NPC Problem — and Ours” Ezra Klein op-ed full page February 26, 2025

It’s a genuine failure of Democrats that they didn’t put more energy into making the government faster and better when they were in charge.

Democrats became champions of a government that didn’t work.

[Trump] didn’t want policy. They didn’t want to go line by line through U.S.A.I.D. and figure out what worked and what didn’t.

They did not want to think through new civil service regulations.

The weak point is Congress.

“Democrats Must Think Beyond Musk” NYT February, 2025

Their goal must be a muscular, lean, effective administrative state that works for Americans.

            Mr. Musk’s reckless will not get us there, but neither will the excessive caution and addiction to procedure that Democrats exhibited under President Joe Biden’s leadership.

For example:

$42 billion program for broadband internet in 2021 – has not connected a single household as of December 2024

$7.5 billion electric charging stations – 47 in 15 sites as of December 2024

More than half of the $1.6 trillion appropriated under Mr. Biden’s four signature bills remain unspent and vulnerable to clawback

Imagine designing simple web form to allow companies to express interest in funding under CHIPS and Science Act. It would require:

– Extensive review by lawyers and dozens of others in your agency and the federal government
– Review by the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, 9 months
– Posting plans to the Federal Register
– Addressing comments from the public
– Posting it again

One soon realizes all one’s energy goes into navigating the bureaucracy for months on end. The

1980 Paperwork Reduction Act has not been updated.

“It’s Not Too Late for Congress to Stand Up for Itself” Brendan Buck NYT February 26, 2025.

The failure of Congress to assert itself makes it easier for some members of Congress to support the plundering of an agency.

As it turns out, providing oversight is hard plodding work. It requires intense study, pulling in experts and questioning agency leaders. It requires digging through reports from the Government Accountability Office and an agency inspector general both of which help to identify waste, fraud and programmatic failures.

Needless-to-say, in the Trump Muskacre, none of this occurred.

Perhaps the goal for Americans can be seen in the comments of Scott Siskind who blogs about Silicon Valley under the pseudonym Scott Alexander (“The Vibe Shifts Against the Right” Michelle Goldberg, NYT April 17, 2025). He wrote:

We wanted a swift, lean government that stopped strangling innovation and infrastructure. Instead we got chainsaw-style firings, total devastations of state capacity in exactly the way most likely to strangle innovation more than ever, and the worst and dumbest people in the world gloating about how they solved the “grift” of sending lifesaving medications to dying babies.