The two presidential campaigns in 2024 have two different ways of communicating. One has used a heretofore unused form of communication taking advantage of changed technologies since COVID. The other employs the same venue he used in prior presidential elections.

PROFESSIONAL POLITICAL WRESTLING ARENA

For Trump, the standard mode of communication continues to be the professional political wrestling arena, a format that has been the subject of multiple blogs in the past. Here the seventh-grade-smart-aleck-dumb-aleck gets to act out to his heart’s content. For the immature child with the maturity of a three-year old, it is the perfect format.

He can say and do whatever he wants without reproach.
Everyone is two-dimensional or in his childish terms, the greatest ever or the worst ever.
His fights are rigged when they occur.
He gets to insult, defame, and besmirch people in vile, disgusting, racist, and sexist manner.

What’s not to like? His Magadoons and Brandons cheer him on.

And he can always use his own twitter account.

The Wharton school graduate even gets to call tariffs a tax on foreign nations and proudly proclaim that he will be the tariff president.

So what’s the problem?

As every musician knows, tours take a toll. Trump doesn’t have the mojo he once had in 2016. Eight years older is a long time for the aged politician.

He needs fresh material. Some performers can get away with only repeating past hits. It’s hard in the professional political arena. He might think he is running against Barack Obama or Crooked Hillary but the old chestnuts of “Show me your birth certificate” and “lock her up” no longer work. Even the “forever war” is stale.” His audience has heard for years about “carnage.” How many years can he prosper off his eve of destruction mantra?

STRESS

A new element to the mix is stress. Back on December 28, 2023, I wrote Rudy and the Donald: The Downward Spirals

We should not overlook the impact of stress on his life despite his “witch-hunt” bravado. While Biden may stumble now and then, Trump is the one whose mental necessities show signs of deterioration. His repeating of errors are not the signs of a “senior moment” or slip of the tongue. They are the signs of a loss of mental acuity, of a person who keeps thinking a deceased spouse is still alive or he still lives at home and not in a facility. Regardless of any normal deterioration in his mind, the constant stress of the legal cases even before a parade of Republicans start testifying against him will make Giuliani seem normal by comparison.

He is on a one-way track downhill. He can’t admit he was a failure in business. He can’t admit he was a crooked failure in business. He can’t admit he lost the election. He can’t admit he was the one who tried to steal the election. It is easier for some of his codefendants to reach plea deals. They still have a life to lead free of Trump. He has no such luxury. He is in this until the end because the alternative of facing and living the truth is a threat to entire life and self-identity. It’s no wonder the prospect of prison frightens him. One has to wonder then if it will be safe to leave him alone.

For months now, Anthony Scaramucci has predicted that the “stressed” out Trump over the indictments will drop out of race. Lately he has tempered his prediction about a pre-Iowa caucus withdrawal. The change was due to the slow pace of the cases. While it is possible he might go to jail for contempt of court in 2024, there is little likelihood that he will go to prison in 2024. Still one should not discount the impact of the constant stress due to the various cases. Think of how much he has to lose if he loses to Joe Biden again this coming November. Care to take bets on when he will start claiming rigged election this time around too?

The revival of various legal cases will only accelerate the stress. If he starts to believe that his losing the election, meaning “Delay, Delay, Delay,” ends in a little over two months then the stress will only magnify accordingly. Plus, what happens when his followers are forced to face that their Lord and Savior, the Chosen One, Blessed Be his Name admits that he lost the 2020 election? Could that admission become the October surprise of this election?

HAPPY WARRIOR ZOOM CALLS    

Meanwhile there is a new technology on the campaign trail: the on-line zoom call. Even before the professional campaigning began, there was the amateur hour of the zoom call. Participants are in the comfort of their home and in the comfort of the clothes they wear at home. Prepared remarks are out. Interruptions by children and pets are in. It all seems so real.

The joyful upbeat mood of the post-Biden withdrawal continued in these calls. Thanks to modern technology, the number of participants skyrocketed. “Win with Black Women” went from 150-200 people at a weekly event to 44,000. These numbers pressed Zoom’s capacity the limit. After all, who wanted to anger White Dudes for Harris which eventually exceeded the cap of over 200,000?

These online calls were part of the irrational exuberance which swept through the Democratic Party following the withdrawal of Joe Biden from the Presidential pace. In the matter of mere moments the political dynamic shifted from Magadoons measuring the drapes in the Oval Office to we have ourselves a horse race.

The question then became with all the donations and volunteers, could that happy warrior mentality be sustained through the convention and afterwards when the campaign officially begins. It is too early to tell at this point but it is important to remember that being back in the ballgame is not the same as winning it. Normally Democrats win the popular vote in presidential elections. They did in 2016 by over 3 million and in 2020 by over 7 million. Putting the battleground states aside, a margin of 50-48% or thereabouts means Harris has not yet closed the deal even on the popular vote. With the change in the national demographics since 2020, one would expect a generic Democratic candidate to do better. Running neck and neck means she has not reached the level of a generic Democratic candidate.

And let’s not forget the Tom Bradly effect. It postulates that likely voters lie to pollsters so as not to appear racist. The result is a difference between what the polls show and how people actually vote. To compound that effect, there may be a gender discrepancy as well.  We won’t know until after the votes are counted.

Finally, let’s not forget voter suppression. All the effort from the past four years may finally payoff this year with people who think they are eligible to vote finding out they are not. Again we will not know until after the votes are counted and certified.

Traditionally, Americans have been an optimistic people (Happy days are here again) and not a people of carnage. But these are not normal times. We will have a better sense of where things stand after the debate and possibly some looming judicial decisions.