As the 2020 Presidential race heats up, it may seem strange to raise the question of 2024. However sometimes looking ahead provides a clearer picture of the present. I started writing this blog on July27 but never got around to completing it. Look at what has happened since then! Greenland – who knew? Our Lord and savior is the chosen one – who knew? American companies have to withdraw from China. No, they do not – who knows? In Trump time, a month is a like a year for normal people. Nothing sticks to him because before anything can it is on to the next event that has never happened before.
Still, despite all that has occurred, it is worth taking a little longer look than the 24-hour news cycle and to think about the 2024 presidential elections.
First, there will be no Republican Party in 2024, just the Trumpican Party using the Republican Party name. Weld, Walsh, Kasich, and the Mooch can appear on all the cable talk shows they want. It does not matter. They are irrelevant. The red wave in 2018 cleansed the Trumpican Party of dozens of disloyal Republicans at the federal level and even more at the state level. That process will continue until the Trumpican Party has been purged of any lingering Republicans.
It’s time to put aside the wishful thinking and live in the real world whether you like it or not. In the real world the Republican Party no longer exists at the federal level; there is only the Trumpican Party. That party is based on no values, no principles, and no ideology. It exists as a cult of personality for a narcissist. No matter what happens in 2020, the Republicans will not regain control of the party that bears its name. Republicans who admire Lincoln need to look elsewhere. If Republicans want to have a voice in 2024 they will need to create a new party (the Constitution Party?). It has been done before. That is how the Republican Party originated in the 1850s. It went on to nominate and elect Abraham Lincoln as President. Not a bad start.
So which Trump will be the nominee in 2024 of the Trumpican Party? Let’s consider two scenarios depending on two different election results in 2020 (and ignore his legal situation).
THE INCUMBENT WINS RE-ELECTION
If the incumbent wins re-election, then one might think that ends the president-for-life option. Based on the 22nd Amendment, an individual is limited to serving two terms. Under normal circumstances that would be true. However what is normal now? The father has expressed his desire to rule for life like his favorite fellow autocrats around the world. He has expressed the desire to at least rule for 16 years as he thinks one president already did. His re-election would do nothing to diminish his desire to remain in power. The only issue is how.
Could he issue an executive order declaring the 22nd Amendment null and void? Of course, he could issue such an order. Would that order have any legal standing? Probably not. It seems unlikely that even the Trump-Judges on the Supreme Court would declare the 22nd Amendment null and void. However, they might interpret to mean what they want it to mean. Certainly it would be worth a try to find out. Perhaps the birthright citizenship issue or his income taxes will preview this possibility of changing the traditional meaning of the 22nd Amendment no matter how absurd that might seem.
But even under the 22nd Amendment a person could run for president for a third term. The 22nd Amendment says “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.” It does not prohibit someone running for a third term. The Trumpican Party could nominate him a third time even if he wins in 2020. Sure there might be a fight about putting his name on the ballot but the Trumpicans easily could win that fight. Since it is the Electoral College that actually elects the President, one could easily make the case that anything prior to that vote is not covered by the amendment. That means a two-term president could run for office and be on the ballot. The line that cannot be crossed is having the electors vote a person into office for a third term. What would happen at that point if the two-term President won the vote? For whom would he instruct the Trumpican Electors to cast their vote? You say that has never happened before. That does not mean it could not. Maybe we will find out in 2024.
Of course all these machinations could be rendered moot despite an incumbent re-election. After all, another possibility is the repeal of the 22nd Amendment. That process undoubtedly would be time consuming event. Furthermore it is unlikely that the required standards could be reached to propose or ratify such a repeal. Having the Trumpican Party nominate him for a third term and just keep moving forward seems like the best way to violate the Constitution and do what you want to do. His standard course of action is to just keep doing what he wants to do until he is stopped. Just because something has never been done and seems absurd does not mean it will not happen.
THE INCUMBENT LOSES RE-ELECTION
At the moment, this scenario seems the more likely. Both Fake and Fox News show him losing decisively in the popular vote to a slew of Democratic candidates. One remarkable consistency from the three national polls I have seen is his percentage of the vote. In each of the three polls, regardless of who the Democratic candidate is, his vote remains the same. It is the individual Democratic vote where the vote varies. His vote went from about 42% against the leading Democratic contenders to 41% to 39% while the opponent figures ranged from 44-50%. It remains to be seen what effect Greenland, the economy, and the easy-to-win trade war will have.
We know what will happen if he loses. He forecast that even before the last election – rigged voting. He will claim the Deep State has rigged the results to favor its candidate and remove him from office. How that claim will work out will depend on a number of factors with too many scenarios to diagram here.
There is something the Democrats can do in preparation for the rigged vote charge. They should sponsor the Rigged Vote Olympics. Contestants will be asked to simulate the illegal voting. The contest will be held in voting districts throughout the country especially in California and battleground states. Participants will vote illegally, leave by the back door of the polling station, run around to the front where they will be given a different shirt and hat, and then vote illegally again. Each contestant will be given a hour and the number of times they navigate the course will be tallied. Runoffs may be necessary. The winner(s) will be granted legal citizenship.
Defeat in the rigged 2020 election where the Deep State finally prevails only means that he will run again as the Trumpican Party candidate in 2024. After all, who could challenge him? It is his party.
Of course, all this is contingent on his legal situation. If he does leave office after the 2020 election, keep mind that he will be pardoned of all federal crimes. He will resign a day or two before the end of his term and be pardoned by the former Vice President now President. That action will wipe the slate clean except for New York. However, it may be difficult to run in 2024 if you are in jail or prison. Keep in mind that he is more afraid of exposing his real hair than he is of his real income and wealth. Who knows how all this will play out? So as for the future my recommendation is to remember the words of Duped-by-Russia Hannity who constantly advises us: “Buckle up!”