This post in the first in a series of posts analyzing the results of the 2024 Presidential Election. I am starting with something that as of November 8, 2024, does not appear to have happened. To the best of knowledge there is no civil war at this time. In fact the country seems remarkably peaceful with no carnage in sight.
Let’s start by reviewing what did not happen. I will focus on articles and issues from The Atlantic which I have been patiently saving for this moment. I have lots of articles fully highlighted in yellow that I expected to serve as the basis for many blogs to come. I intended to review those articles and compare them to what was happening in Earth 1. Now it appears as if these well-meaning articles are the ones from Earth 2 and I have to decide whether to save them for posterity or to recycle them.
HOW TO STOP A CIVIL WAR
“How to Stop a Civil War” was the title on the cover of the December 2019 issue, just about five years ago. Editor Jeffrey Goldberg opened the issue with some comments by me from “America’s Third Civil War: An Update” (December 13, 2020)
A NATION COMING APART BY JEFFREY GOLDBERG
Goldberg tactfully opens his “Editor’s Note” with:
The 45th president of the United States of America is uniquely unfit for the office and poses a multifaceted threat to our country’s democratic institutions.
Truer words were never written, but I suspect they understate the problem. I doubt that Goldberg anticipated a frontal assault on the democratic process including an attempted coup to steal the election with the support of the Minority Leader of the House of Representatives and 125 accomplices. To imagine an attempted coup by this particular President requires no stretch of the imagination. To see how widespread the support was and is would have been unimaginable. These 126 traitors are from the present House of Representatives. It is quite likely that in the new House where the Democrats will have only the slimmest of margins, that the number of representatives who support the President in-exile will be even greater. There is no margin of error.
Goldberg went on to write:
The structural failures in our democratic system that allowed a grifter into the White House in the first place⸺this might be our greatest challenge.
I strongly doubt that Goldberg anticipated that the con artist only needed to ask for money to receive over $200 million from his Trumpican base. That is an astonishing achievement in the history of scam annals. He has perfected the ability to raise enormous sums of money in small amounts without having to fleece few bigtime marks.
Finally, Goldberg announced as the editor, the purpose for the special issue.
Out of our conversations, and others like it, emerged the idea for the special issue you are now reading, what we have called “How to Stop a Civil War.” … (W)e worry that the ties that bind us are fraying at alarming speed ⸺ we are becoming contemptuous of each other in ways that are both dire and possibly irreversible.
If these words reflect Goldberg’s assessment of the situation in December 2019, then one can only imagine what he must think in December 2020. For now the coup to steal the election temporarily has been stopped by the Supreme Court. One should expect the final stand where the last ditch effort to overturn the election will be undertaken will be when the new House convenes to ratify the vote of the Electoral College. He still thinks he can overturn the election and has roughly 126 people who will help him. The fat lady still hasn’t sung yet.
REMAINING ARTICLES
This issue and my comments above were written prior to the peaceful political discourse on January 6 by patriots who deserve to be pardoned because the election was stolen. The articles in order of appearance in the “How to Stop a Civil War” issue consists of a series of dispatches, a nice military term to convey the war atmosphere.
Opening Argument: When Trump Goes – Somehow, sometime, he will leave office. Will our politics get better or worse? By David Frum.
Sketch: The Secessionist – Daniel Miller, the leader of the Texas Nationalist Movement, wants to divorce the state from the union once and for all. By Graeme Wood.
Part 1 On the forces that Pull Us Apart
“How America Ends: A Tectonic Demographic Shift is Under Way. Can the Country Hold Together,” by Yoni Appelbaum
“Left Behind: The Real Roots of the Urban/Rural Divide,” by Tara Westover in conversation with Jeffrey Goldberg.
“Why It Feels Like Everything Is Going Haywire: Social Media Rapidly Changed How We Communicate, in Ways the Destabilize Democracy: What Can We Do about That?” by Jonathan Haidt and Tobias Rose-Stockwell.
Too Much Democracy Is bad for Democracy: The Major Parties Have Ceded Unprecedented Power of Primary Voters. It’s a Radical Experiment – and It’s Failing,” by Jonathan Rauch and Ray La Raja.
Part 2 Appeals to Our Better Nature
“The Things We Can’t Face: What We Don’t Talk About When We Talk about Abortion,” by Caitlin Flanagan.
“What Would Mister Rogers Do?: I First Met Him 21 Years Ago, and Now Our Friendship Is the Subject of a new Movie. He’s never been More Revered — or More Misunderstood” by Tom Junod.
“Can this Marriage Be Saved? Applying the Techniques of Couples Counseling to Bring Reds and Blues Back Together Again,” by Andrew Ferguson.
Part 3 Reconciliation and Its Alternatives
“The Road from Serfdom: How Americans Can Become Citizens Again,” by Danielle Allen.
“The Enemy Within: Have We Taught Our Children the Principles of this Democracy Must Live By? Do We Even Remember those Principles Ourselves? by James Mattis.
“Against Reconciliation: The Gravest Danger to American Democracy Isn’t an Excess of Vitriol — It’s the False Promise of Civility,” by Adam Server.
There is much food for thought in these articles. I used a lot of yellow highlighter when reading them. A glance at these pre-January 6, pre abortion ruling, pre “the enemy within” suggests how easy it would be a write of series of blogs just dedicated to the articles in The Atlantic from nearly five years ago. They would provide an update now that the battle is engaged. However, the battle is not engaged.
GEORGE PACKER
George Packer contributed two articles in The Atlantic relevant to this issue.
“The Four Americas: Competing Visions of the Country’s Purpose and Meaning Are Tearing It Apart. Is Reconciliation Possible? (July/August 2021)
“Imagine the Worst: How to Head off the Next Insurrection,” (January/February 2022) the anniversary of the January 6 insurrection.
BARTON GELLMAN
In the same anniversary issue, Barton Gellman wrote a piece which garnered widespread notice among the chattering class:
“January 6 Was Practice: Donald Trump Is Better Position to subvert an Election Now that He Was in 2020.”
MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE
Way back on President’s Day in 2023, acclaimed scholar Marjorie Taylor Greene tweeted that we need a divorce. The time had come to separate red states from blue. “From the sick and disgusting woke culture issues shoved down our throats to the Democrat’s traitorous America Last polices, we are done.”
Peter Wehner responded on February 21, 2023, in an on-line piece in The Atlantic.
David French responded “Take Threats of ‘National Divorce’ Seriously,” (NYT March 6, 2023, print).
So now I have this folder of articles clamoring for attention. It should be possible to write more than a dozen blogs on the subjects of the looming Civil War and/or the divorce. Yet what would be the point? One concern, of course, is taking seriously these people as prognosticators. Perhaps authors should have their articles accompanied by a batting average.
But the topic now is a postmortem on the recent presidential election. At this point I don’t have time to be distracted. There are a plethora of blogs to be written about the election. This is only the first one.
