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1824 Presidential Election

Historic 2024 Presidential Rematch

August 18, 2022
by Peter Feinman
Look How Much We Have Progressed!

The 2024 Presidential elections is shaping up as an historic one in many ways. Of course, in this rapidly changing world, sometimes it is hard to keep up with events. I tend to read the morning papers in the evening. Frequently I learn that what I am seeing on the TV screen and reading in the paper are out of synch.

Let’s start with the easy one.

REMATCH

The upcoming Presidential election will be the first rematch since 1956. In that election Dwight Eisenhower defeated Adlai Stevenson for the second time. Strange as it may seem now, the nomination of a loser was not that strange in the opening decades of the 20th century. William Jennings Bryan and Thomas Dewey had done the same previously in the Democratic and Republican parties. Since that time, individuals have sought their party’s nomination on multiple occasions, but the loser in the general election has never run again.

One difference this time is that the 45th President does not accept that he was the loser nor do his followers. We have seen the tape from the House Select Committee of the Loser not being able to acknowledge on January 6, 2021, that he had lost the election. As a result in the minds of many, 2024 will be a battle between the rightful winner in 2020 and the person who stole the election from him. In fact, based on the media coverage, one might still think 45 was still president. Compared to LBJ in the 1960s, 46 receives scarcely any attention for his legislative achievements. 45 easily can dominate the first 30 minutes of a cable news talk show. Strangely enough, that means in the 2022 midterm elections, voters may be more likely to vote against the daily barrage of criminal actions associated with 45 than in favor of the achievements of 46.

There was never any doubt that 45 was going to run for third time. The timing of the announcement was subject to debate particularly as it relates to the filing of financial reports. The declaration of candidacy was a given since January 20, 2021, even if not spoken out loud. The only issue was whether any of the wannabees would challenge him. Now we know.

The execution of the warrant at Mar-a-Lago ensures that he will not be challenged. All the wannabees did the Kevin-McCarthy-kiss-the-ring a Mar-a-Lago genuflection in response to the actions of the FBI and DOJ. None of them said, “Enough is enough.” None of them said it was time to move on. Instead they all pledged their loyalty to their leader no matter what hare-brained explanation he provided. With the plea deal of Weisselberg and testifying of Giuliani, we can anticipate many such moments of loyalty affirmation in the weeks, months, and years ahead. The wannabees have been jockeying for position in the hope that there will be an opening in 2024. Barring medical reasons and maybe prison, there will be no opening.

The only one who did not get the memo is Mike Pence. He still thinks he is on a divinely-ordained path to the Presidency. Maybe he is positioning himself for 2028!

As long as Donald Trump is the candidate for 2024, then so is Joe Biden. If one of the wannabees successfully challenged the Loser, the results would be different. Biden is not going to let it be said that he backed down and quit rather than face the “real winner” of 2020 in a fair election. Otherwise, given his age and recent legislative victories, Biden would have no qualms about retiring as a one term president. But as long as Trump is the Republican nominee, then Biden will be the Democratic nominee.

1824 BICENTENNIAL

In a few blogs, I have commented on the generally overlooked election of 1824. Its marks the end of the First Party System of Federalists and Republicans (Jefferson) and the emergence of the Second Party System of Whigs and Democrats (Jackson). Now that the primary season is almost over, we can say that the Republican Party of the Third Party System (Lincoln) no longer exists save in name only. When people who consider themselves patriotic Republicans start referring to John McCain as a RINO, we can safely say the Party is over.

It is fitting that Sarah Palin is in the news for her attempt to be elected to Congress. It was John McCain’s selection of her to be his running mate that previewed that eventual collapse of the Republican Party. Little did anyone know at the time that she had broadcast to the longtime faux Democrat and Clinton-supporter, that there was an opportunity for him to be the center of attention and make money be becoming a faux Republican. As a result, when the Tea Party took over the Republican Party, it really was not due to Tea Party issues. It was based on Trump issues or rather personality.

The new Republican Party has only a few main issues:

1. Revenge against people who were not sufficiently loyal – mission accomplished
2. Relitigate 2020 so the results can be decertified
3. Impeach Joe Biden and investigate Hunter Biden.

The purification of the Republican Party of real Republicans is nearly complete. There still may be some local resistance efforts to salvage what is left at the state level. However, at the state level the battle is over.

Other than rigging the electoral process so Joe Biden cannot win and ensuring that Democrats cannot win at the state level, the Trumpican Party has no agenda. It has slogans but no actual platform. Some Trumpican state legislatures have become bogged down in what to do post Roe v. Wade reversal. They are floundering around because they did not think things through and now are confronted with an ever increasing number of real-world situations they would rather avoid. Notice the absolute silence from 45 about what to do. So much for leadership!

Speaking of the absence of leadership, DO NOT ask a Trumpican candidate about what do about the declining water levels in the Colorado either. Trumpicans have no suggestions about what to do in the real world, only slogans about what to yell in the culture wars. At some point, people will pay the price for putting unqualified people in positions of power. As long as times were good, the United States could get away with having an immature child with the emotional maturity of a three-year old as its leader. Unfortunately, his shortcomings left him no match for the coronavirus leaving hundreds of thousands of American dead. The same disastrous results await if Trumpicans are put in power at the national and/or state level.

So what should Lincoln Republicans do? Retirement is one path elected Republicans have taken. Then instead of having cowed elected officials they will be replaced be true believers. They have no interest in governing or ability to do so. In the Senate, at least, where candidates need to be elected on statewide basis and not in gerrymandered districts, there still are traditional Republicans who can cross the aisle for the good of the country. However, their numbers are dwindling. By contrast, the House is hopeless. Republicans have been routed by Trumpicans there.

What then should a traditional Republican do? Another possibility is the Georgia maneuver. In 2020, 28,000 Republicans voted in the election but left the presidential line blank. That made 45 the loser. The same possibility exists in 2022: vote for Republican candidates on the ballot and leave the Trumpican candidate line(s) blank. In Arizona, that might mean not voting at all!

The political realignment of the two party system is underway. With the Republican Party, the transformation is almost complete. But there are two caveats:

1. what if the Trumpican candidates do not prevail in the general elections as they did in the primaries? – There is a growing awareness even among Republicans that the Trump-selected Senate candidates are déjà vu 2010/2012 all over again. Democrats could pick up seats in Senate and Governor races.
2. what happens when the leader of the transformation leaves the stage whether it is due to age, medical, prison, or health? –  At that point the knives will come out as people battle for power for control of the Trumpican Party and maybe even give an opening to the real Republicans to take back their party.

In the meantime, we can enjoy the two mysteries

Why did he remove the government documents? Even though he thought they were his, why these particular records both classified and unclassified as souvenir/trophies?

Who was the informant and what will happen once that person is exposed?

Will the Constitutional Republic Survive America’s Third Civil War?

January 26, 2021
by Peter Feinman
For want of wearing a mask, the presidency was lost. (https://nailstip.blogspot.com/2019/08/for-want-of-horseshoe-nail.html)

The fate of the constitutional republic of the United States of America remains unknown. Will it survive to celebrate its 250th anniversary? Will it dissolve into its constituent parts? Will it simply muddle along under constant strain because the alternative is too scary?

No one knows the answer to these questions. Before beginning a series of history blogs on the subject, I would like to note how easy it would have been for the constitutional republic already to have ended. A lot of things had to work out for us to get even this far and anyone one of them could have turned out differently.

THERE COULD HAVE BEEN A BIGGER TURNOUT ON 1/6

Approximately 8000 people showed up on January 6, not all of them armed. When I first wrote Seven Days in January: This Time It Is Not a Movie on January 3, I asked what would happen if different combinations of heavily-armed right wing militias had stormed the Capitol. I wondered if there were sufficient ground forces to stop them. Now we know. Even with the lower number of insurrectionists the defensive forces were inadequate to do the job.

1. Why weren’t there adequate forces to defend the Capitol?
2. Why was the turnout for the insurrection so low?
3. Despite the low numbers, what would the response have been if Mike Pence had been hanged and Nancy Pelosi had been killed?

SUPPOSE THE TRUMPICANS HAD BEEN AS WELL ORGANIZED AS THE WOKE

The Woke were prepared for the post-election attempt by the Trumpicans to steal the election; the Trumpicans were not. The Woke correctly anticipated the Trumpican attempt to steal the election. They had planning sessions as to what to do. More importantly, they had planning sessions on what not to do: No cries to “Defund the Police.” No toppling of statues. No burning of flags. They conducted training sessions. They planned for contingencies. They coordinated. They vowed not to provide Trumpicans with the slogans and photo-ops that would undermine their cause. They were organized, disciplined, ready and successful.

By contrast, the Trumpican side was true to their leader. He bought a lifetime of incompetence and ineptitude to managing his post-election attempt to steal the election. He was not prepared at all. He had no planning sessions. He developed no strategies. He organized nothing. When your legal effort is being led by Rudy Giuliani and Sidney Powell, you know you have a weak case. Everything was ad hoc, impulsive, on the fly. The DOJ wasn’t ready; in the end a nobody from left field attempted to stage a coup within the department that went nowhere. In the end the corporations that were being accused of criminal activity based on wishful thinking decided to strike back through legal action.

The planning for the insurrection itself consisted of a call to show up, attend a rally, and walk to the Capitol – it will be wild. There was no planning about what the people should do once they got inside the Capitol. As Mary Trump said about her uncle, a child in the body of an adult with the emotional maturity of a three-year old, he “enjoyed every second…He is a physical coward but he’s perfectly happy when other people commit violence on his behalf.” Even the rightwing groups mocked the effort for being unorganized and inadequately planned. Once inside, the insurrectionists were busy taking selfies and souvenirs. Skilled revolutionaries they were not.

1. Suppose next time the insurrection leader is an adult?
2. Suppose next time the insurrectionists turn out in force and do have a plan?
3. Suppose next time the Woke aren’t as well organized and prepared to stop the steal?

WHAT IF THE CORONAVIRUS HAD OCCURRED EARLIER IN HIS TERM?  

On numerous occasions during the pandemic, various people in the administration have made fools of themselves for their ineptitude, incompetence, and ignorance. They did not understand the science nor did they want do. One of the questions historians will ask, if they aren’t already, is why did the eventual loser throw away the opportunity to be a winner.

1. Imagine if he had worn a mask.
2. Imagine if had pretended to be sympathetic.
3. Imagine if he had put Mike Pence in charge.

Of course, he couldn’t change who he was even though it cost him the election. He simply was too simple-minded, narcissistic and lacking in mental necessities to transform the virus into a leadership challenge as a wartime president. Instead all he cared about was the Dow Jones and once that crisis was solved he lost interest.

But if the virus had struck earlier and if the vaccine had been ready earlier and if the vaccine had been distributed earlier and America was looking back on the virus on election day the way China is, he would have been re-elected. He will never understand that.

WHAT IF THE DEMOCRATS HAD NOT NOMINATED JOE BIDEN?

While 7 million votes is a lot numerically, in percentage terms, it is not that great. A small shift of votes in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, and one congressional district and there would have been no need to try to steal the election. All things considered, that is not a lot of votes. It also shows how thin the Democratic bench is and how Democrats may need Biden to run again in 2024 to prevent a Trumpican victory.

Our next presidential election is the bicentennial of the election of 1824. That presidential election was one of the ugliest in American history. There were five candidates. American was transitioning from the First Party system of Federalists and Anti-Federalists/Republicans of Adams and Jefferson to the Second Party system of Whigs and Democrats with Clay/Webster and Jackson. I first wrote about it in September 2016 The Presidential Election of 1824: Lessons for Today and tried to resume the discussion in December 2020 Biden and Cuomo: The End of an Era. In that blog I wrote about the Diversity Party and the Democratic Party as two of the parties. The question was how long the two factions could remain united in one party. The answer is still unknown but I think it is safe to say both groups understand the stakes if they don’t.

In that blog, I deferred writing about the corresponding division of the other party between the Republicans and the Trumpicans. In a little more than a month since then, that division has become obvious to everyone. The actions of the state parties such as in Arizona and really-off-the-rails Oregon, the votes in the House on the electors and the impeachment, the vote in the Senate on constitutionality of the impeachment all show that there is no civil war in the Republican Party. The Trumpicans have won. The Republicans are retiring from the battlefield. The Lincoln Project Republicans aren’t welcome anymore and they know it. There is no place for them.

Mitch McConnell is four years too late to battle to save the Republican Party from the Trumpicans. He got his tax cut to help rich people get richer and he got his judges. If the price is the destruction of the Republican Party for the Trumpican Party, then he will have to decide if it was worth it. The people who need to set up a third party are the Republicans and not the Trumpicans. There is no Republican Party left to take back.

That is why the fate of the constitutional republic remains unknown and precarious. The United States of America now has one national party that is dedicated not to the rule of law under the Constitution but to the wishes of one immature individual with no conscience, no ethics, and no morals. For now at least, he is in complete control of his party. The vaunted Biden working relationships with members across the aisle means nothing. Those are the Republicans on their way out. He has no Senate experience with Trumpicans. He has no House experience with Trumpicans. They do not consider him legitimate.

The Democrats still control the House…by a little and the in-power Party tends to lose seats in the non-Presidential election. The Democrats barely control the Senate but there still are some Republicans left there so some legislation may be possible. The Democrats have no margin for error. The continued existence of the United States of America as a constitutional republic depends on them not making one.

Biden and Cuomo: The End of an Era

December 20, 2020
by Peter Feinman
1824: The Ugly Election That Birthed Modern American Politics (nationalgeographic.com)

Our next presidential election will be the bicentennial of the election of 1824. That year might not ring a bell with people but it marked an important transition in American history. In that election, America transformed from what is called the First Party system to the Second Party system. The First Parties were the Federalists (Hamilton, Adams) and the Anti-Federalists/Republicans (Jefferson). The Second Parties were the Whigs (Clay, Webster) and the Democrats (Jackson). The “Stop the Steal” election of 1824 was the transition point. It occurred two years before the 50th anniversary of the birth of the nation just as 2024 will be two years before the 250th anniversary, a number that would have been outstanding to them.

Today we take for granted not only the two-party system but the existence of the two parties we have at present. The election of 1824 involved 4 major presidential candidates. While 2024 is likely to have fewer, there are four factions which will be competing for the top spot. In this blog, I wish to address two of them: the Democratic Party and the Diversity Party.

THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY VERSUS THE DIVERSITY PARTY

The modern Democratic Party as we know it emerged in the 1930’s under Franklin Roosevelt. Three of its components were the Irish (Joe Biden), the Italian (Andy Cuomo), and the Jewish (Chuck Schumer). It included white Southerners who especially since the 1960s, have migrated to the Republican/Confederate Party. It did not include Negroes who later became African Americans and who migrated from the Republican/Lincoln Party to the Democratic Party.

That era is over. Non-transgendered white male heterosexuals like Biden, Cuomo, and Schumer have no future in the Diversity Party. Candidates and appointees need to be diverse. I am not suggesting that this will be an instantaneous transformation at the federal, state, and local level. It will happen gradually through direct frontal challenges (the AOC election) and through attrition. For example, in my own congressional district a traditional Democrat was replaced by a Diverse person. Now all the Hudson Valley congressional representations are diverse. Cuomo already was challenged by a Diverse candidate. When he finally leaves office, the odds are a Diverse person will replace him. Similarly for Schumer.

This situation is playing out in California now. There is one Senate opening due to the incumbent being elected Vice President. Soon there will be a second one. The current Democrat is 87 years old and past her prime. Whether Feinstein steps down or hangs on until the end of her term, the Democrat will be succeeded by a Diverse representative. The different hyphen-groups already are jousting for the Harris seat. Perhaps there will be a compromise where one hyphen group gets the Harris seat and a second one gets the Feinstein seat. Welcome to the world of New York City Council elections.

Biden also faces the obligation to appoint people from the Diverse Party. He seems to be trying to do so with people who have diverse characteristics but Democratic Party values. Since he has many positions to fill, he has a lot of options as he juggles his responsibilities. He still can appoint non-transgendered white male heterosexuals instead of a diverse person as long as he explains why.

The Diverse Party is quite outspoken about its expectations from the new administration. Yes, they want a seat at the table in the room where it happens. They even can designate how many seats they want – more than a token. Similarly, they do not want seats in the back of the room by the kitchen door. They want to be seat upfront in seats of power and prestige.

The Diverse Party like the Tea Party a decade earlier is not likely to become a separate political party. It will continue to operate within the Democratic Party gradually building up its strength especially as the older Democratic officials retire or are retired.

DIVERSE PARTY LINGO

The Diverse Party has its own convoluted lingo where words don’t mean what they seem to mean. Here are two recent examples from consecutive days in The New York Times.

“Asian-Americans Have a Lesson for Democrats” by Viet Thanh Nguyen (12/17/20 print)

Consider his second sentence:

For Democrats, Asian-Americans are suddenly crucial: They are the fastest-growing racial or ethnic group in the U.S. electorate…

What makes this comment so extraordinarily absurd? First, Asia is a continent. The word comes from the Greeks. They were referring to what today is Turkey where “Murder on Orient Express” was headed. Second, Asia is not a racial or ethnic group. Later on in the op-ed, the author acknowledges that “The category ‘Asian-Americans’ is not natural, for people in Asia do not typically imagine themselves as Asians, but rather identify with specific nationalities or ethnicities.”

In his bio, Nguyen is listed as covering South East Asia. That makes sense. He is of Vietnamese descent. The United States fought a long war in what was routinely identified as Southeast Asia. The Vice-President elect is routinely identified as being South Asian. The Boston Marathon bombers are of Central Asian descent. The area the Greeks referred to as Asia is now mainly Southwest Asia in academic studies and the Middle East in political discussions. And let’s not forget where Siberia is located.

“ASIANS” IS NOT A RACIAL TERM.
WHAT WORD DOES IDENTIFY THE RACE OF THE PEOPLE IDENTIFIED AS ASIAN-AMERICANS? CAN YOU THINK OF ONE?

Nguyen goes on to note that Asian-Americans support policies consistent with those supported by people of color. That means Asian-Americans are not people of color. What color are they then? Or are they a people of no color?

President of Queens College

Here we see the nonsense of the politically-corrected terminology that twists people into absurd knots. Now we know that Asian-Americans are a people of no color who do not include all Americans of Asian descent and who have no name for their race. How progressive.

Want more?

“Biden makes History by Picking Native American for the Cabinet” by Coral Davenport (12/18/20 print)

In this example of twisted reporting, Deb Haaland, the article mentions:

native as an adjective once
Native as a noun once
Native America six times
Indigenous three times
Indian twice as part of the name of government entities.

Can you imagine an article on Joe Biden where he is identified as Irish, Celtic, European, and white during the course of the writing?

One might think that government entities responsible for Indians means that the people over whom they are responsible are Indians. That is true but politically incorrect. Instead the reader is treated to a plethora of terms. Indians do know that all people born in the United States are native Americans. Indians should also know that no native Americans should be privileged over any other native American. Indians however have what the Southeast Asians and East Asians do not have: a real name for themselves – INDIAN.

According to this article, Elizabeth Kronk Warner, dean and professor of law at the University of Utah, and a citizen of the Sault Ste. Marie tribe of Chippewa INDIANS [and presumably of Utah, too] said:

It’s momentous to see an INDIAN promoted out of the shadows of American history to a seat at the table in the White House. Tribes and the federal government have a relationship that goes back to the 18th century ⸺ but despite that relationship we have never had an American INDIAN at this level of government.

Apparently the only ones who can use the term “Indian” are Indians themselves. While that is somewhat of an exaggeration, it isn’t by as much as it should be.

As we head towards the 1824 Presidential Election Bicentennial, it is reasonable to anticipate that the Diversity Party will become more and more insistent that politically-corrected vocabulary be used that no matter how convoluted and distorted it is. It is reasonable to anticipate that the Democratic Party will follow the lead of the Diversity Party. It is reasonable to anticipate that more and more white people will object to the microaggressions of having to toe the Diversity Party line or be subject to the Thought Police. What is not known is whether the opposition will stop being the party of stupid cowering weenies in the face of this politically-corrected assault and will realize the opportunity it presents if it was capable of being the party of Lincoln.

More to come on the 1824 Bicentennial.