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Can West Virginia Save Ezra Klein?

"Civil War" was a top trending topic on Twitter on Sunday after remarks from an attendee of former President Donald Trump's rally in Iowa were widely circulated online and by the media. Trump held a rally at the Iowa State Fairground in Des Moines on Saturday. At the event, Trump supporter Lori Levi told MSNBC that she believes the U.S. is headed for a "civil war." Levi criticized Democrats and Republicans, saying most members of the GOP are "as weak as they possibly could be in Congress." "They're establishment. They don't care about the American people because they're in their elite little tower," she said. "So we're just sick of it, you know, and we're not going to take it anymore. I see a civil war coming. I do. I see civil war coming." (www.newsweek.com)

West Virginia is having a moment. So far in 2021, it has been the legislative year of West Virginia. How much longer can this last? What does it mean for the elections of 2022 and beyond?

JOE MANCHIN IS NOT MITT ROMNEY

In February, 2020, I wrote a blog entitled Where Will Mitt Romney Caucus in 2021? I said the following about Manchin at the time of the second impeachment vote:

It is rare for a Senator to break with a party on an impeachment vote. So far in American history, there is only one instance of a Senator voting to remove a President of his own party. Apparently, the Impeached One thought there was a Democrat who might vote against his party. Joe Manchin, West Virginia Senator, has long been considered one of the more conservative members of the Democratic Party. He has voted more often against his Democratic caucus than with it. There seems to have been a genuine belief that this Senator (and perhaps Doug Jones of Alabama for different reasons) might defect. Obviously that did not happen. The Democratic Party remained united.

The main subject of the blog was not the impeachment vote but the 2020 Senate elections. Different outcomes were possible. I conjectured that there was the possibility of a split Senate and what it might mean.

And then there is Mitt Romney. Suppose when all is said and done, the Trumpicans have 50 Senate seats… But suppose the Democrats win the presidency. Then Romney’s vote could make the difference. In this case, the Democrats only need a net gain of two to put Romney in the driver’s seat.

At the beginning of this year, I returned to the same subject:

Depending on how the vote in Georgia plays out, Mitt Romney may potentially have the opportunity to take a leadership role in healing the country. Of course, even if that opportunity presents itself, he may not rise to the occasion to take such a leadership position. Of course, if he doesn’t, who will?

As it turned out, I had the numbers right but the Senator wrong. One Senator has been in the driver’s seat and taken a leadership position but it has been the West Virginia Senator, Joe Manchin.

THE SENATE AND EZRA KLEIN

Manchin’s position will likely change after the 2022 elections. One possibility is that the Democrats will do well and pick up seats in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina. Such a Democratic majority in the Senate would neutralize the significance of Manchin’s vote including for the filibuster. Another possibility of course, is that the Democrats will lose their leadership in the Senate in which case Manchin will be meaningless.

The Democratic prospects in the Senate contributed to a major op-ed piece in The New York Times yesterday entitled “David Shor Is Telling Democrats What They Don’t Want to Hear.” Klein paints a dire picture for the Democrats in accordance with the prognostications of modeler Shor. My purpose here is not to regurgitate Shor’s predictions or Klein’s response. Rather I will hone in on the Senate-related comments.

Klein notes that the Senate configuration overweighs rural states. He cites the Republicans adding a flurry of states in 1889 and 1890 that continue to vote Republican to this very day – North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, and Washington (Democratic state level). Klein mentions the last gasp in the present Congress for additional Democratic states in Puerto Rico and Washington D.C. to rectify that imbalance.

The consequences of this division is doom for the Democrats. Essentially, Democrats can pile up the votes in states like California and New York and have little to show for it. I have always thought Democrats in California should create their own Homestead Act in other states. Imagine relocating 1-2 million Democratic voters from California to Republican and/or battleground states. In part, something like that has happened but it is Republicans in California moving to Texas instead. Think of New-York-City-dwelling Democrats who move to Florida and are replaced by immigrants who vote Democrat for a net change of zero. By contrast, when upstate Republicans move to Florida, they are replaced by no one. The result is an even more Democratic state.

In my local paper, there was a report of Westchester County Republicans becoming desperate. Once the county was Republican. Now all county positions are Democratic and all county legislators are Democratic except for one who is Conservative. The Republican Party therefore if it wishes to be successful has to live in real world. It has decided to jettison Trump to get back in the good graces of the voters. Good luck with that effort as the Hitman gears up for the 2024 election.

I mention these New York and California anecdotes to point out that major structural change is needed if the Democrats wish to overcome the Senate and Electoral College obstacles. Small actions just don’t cut it. Once again, West Virginia shows the way.

THE WEST VIRGINIA SOLUTION TO THE SENATE AND ELECTORAL COLLEGE

More and more people now are openly talking about the current civil war and the possibility of secession. On one level, I am pleased to see people are now facing the real world. For years I have been writing about the civil, not cultural war. For years I have expressed my doubts over whether we will celebrate the 250th birthday of the country in its present form. At this point baring medical concerns, the 2024 presidential election will be a rematch of the 2020 election, the first rematch since 1956. To know this far in advance who the candidates will be really is remarkable. The Hitman already has taken his show on the road to Iowa. The campaign is underway.

In 2024, no matter what, the Hitman will claim victory on Election Night. What will Joe Biden do? January 6, 2021, is small taste of what will happen if the Hitman is not certified as the winner in 2025. The civil war will move beyond the talking stage to the fighting stage. We already know that whether we want to admit it or not. Since we know this scenario will play out, what if anything can be done to minimize the looming violence?

One step is the West Virginia example from America’s Second Civil War.  The key to minimizing the violence and uncertainty is following the precedent of West Virginia. In the Second Civil War, the people of what became West Virginia separated from the Confederate state of Virginia. They did not ask Virginia’s permission; they just did it and with Federal approval.

We need to follow that precedent. The eleven Confederate states need to divide into their constituent parts – part Trumpican and part American. The boundary lines should not be that difficult to determine. There already are gerrymandered districts at the Congressional and state level. Voting results are known at the county level. As part of the post-2020 census reapportionment, the Confederate state legislatures effectively will divide their states into two groups anyway. The next step is to take that division further by creating separate states based on those boundary lines drawn by the Confederates.

The result will be eleven new states. What worked for Republicans in 1889 and 1890 can work for Democrats in 2024. The new states directly address the issues raised by Klein and in a far more decisive manner. The eleven new states mean 22 additional Senators and a reallocation of the current Representatives. The 22 states will have 44 Senators, 22 Trumpican and 22 Democrat. These numbers compare to 18 Trumpican and 4 Democrat at present. The net increase of 14 Democrats creates a high hurdle for Trumpicans to overcome to achieve control of the Senate. The separation also eliminates the issues of voter suppression, rigged counting, and partisan Secretaries of State at least in the Confederate states. It also means the current Electoral College vote totals in Confederate states including Texas and Florida will be split between the two candidates instead of winner-take-all.

We all know that winter is coming. We all know that the storm is coming. We all know that Americans will not accept the results of the 2024 presidential election. Why wait until after the fact to respond? Why not act now to minimize the violence? Separate the Confederate states into Union and Confederate peacefully now while we still can. Trumpicans are hard at work to ensure the game is rigged in 2024; it is past time for the Democrats to rise to the occasion and fight back.

What Will Trumpicans Do on August 14?

The Trumpican Book of Revelation foretells his return

We are less than one week away from one of the momentous days in the history of the United States. An unprecedented event is about to occur. A sitting President will be removed from office midterm. We came close with Andrew Johnson. This time is different. You can feel the excitement mounting. You can sense the joy beginning to erupt across the land. One can start to count the hours until the glorious day of divine deliverance occurs.

PILLOW HEAD’S PERFORMANCE

Pillow Head teased us with his performance on CNN of what is to come at his conference. Never in the annals of history has there been a better organized, better sourced, and better presented case than when Pillow Head dazzled a world audience with the truth he has uncovered. Is there anyone who knows more about the law and how voting works in America than Pillow Head himself?

Truly his performance was one for the record books. I predict that debaters in high school and college, trial lawyers, and screen writers will turn to Pillow Head’s talk for inspiration and guidance in how to marshal an argument when unmasking a crime. Not since Sean Hannity exposed Seth Rich has there been such a masterful display of connecting the dots to reveal the ugly criminal truth. Now we know that even devices not connected to the internet can be hacked. Truly the steal-the-election crime was overwhelming in its complexity, design, and execution.

The end is now in sight. Pillow Head has carefully documented and presented his case for the most egregious cyber-crime in world history. There can be no doubt now of the consequences. It is only a matter of waiting a few more days for the removal sequence to unfold. In addition, Pillow Head’s team of lawyers will be seeking criminal indictments in multiple counties throughout the country for the perpetrators of his steal. This time the lawyers have the hard evidence and do not need to concern themselves about retribution from the courts for frivolous lawsuits devoid of merit and intelligence.

However, I confess I would feel more confident about the validity of the August 13 date if instead of petitioning the Court on his income taxes, the Still-President simply had said, “My new Acting Attorney General will reverse that decision on my taxes on August 14.”  And, of course, none of his people will cooperate with the January 6 Commission witch hunt either.  Since he voiced neither objection, I guess he lacks confidence in Pillow Head’s predictions even if he accepts Pillow Head’s data.

POST TRUMPATIC STRESS SYNDROME

On the off chance that events do not unfold as predicted, what then are the consequences?

Consider the disappointments that Trumpicans have experienced so far.

They were not able to celebrate after Election Day.

They were not able to celebrate on January 6.

They were not able to celebrate on January 20.

They were not able to celebrate on March 4.

They will not be able to celebrate on August 13.

Combined, all these failed days of joy pack a powerful traumatic punch. How much more trauma can they be expected to endure?

Trumpicans still know beyond a shadow of a doubt that the election was stolen. Nothing will ever sway them from that belief. They do not care if the theft was due to Chinese bamboo paper, Chinese thermometers, Jewish lasers, Italian satellites, dead people voting, illegal aliens voting, or some combination. They know it has to be something. Their concern instead is over the redress for this monstrous theft. At this point, the odds are they have run out of options for anything to be done. Perhaps the last gasp is the seven step plan outlined above.

Although there is no date attached to the implementation of that plan, one possible date for portions of it is the 2022 elections. At this point even Democrats expect to lose control of the House. Perhaps then the new Speaker of the House will yield his position, the House will impeach Joe Biden, the Senate will remove both Biden and Harris, the rightful President will resume office, and the rightful Speaker will return to his position. It certainly is true that if the Democrats lose control of the House that Joe Biden will be impeached twice before the 2024 election. Unfortunately for the loser there is no foreseeable legal way for him to return to the White House except by winning the next presidential election. Trumpicans are going to have to forgo their celebration until then.

PREVIEWING 2024

It should be taken for granted that the 2024 election will be rematch of the 2020 election as things stand now. This presumes that both candidates are in good health and that neither one will run if not physically and mentally up to the job.

For some strange reason, some political commentators and actual politicians think that 2024 will not be a rerun. I kid you not, but there are people handicapping who will be the Trumpican candidate in the event that the original voluntarily chooses not to run. Perhaps he won’t want to lose again!

The mind boggles at this view. Think of how hard he has worked to sustain the big lie that that election was stolen. It is August and we are still talking about it as current events. Tens of millions of people fervently believe the election was stolen. Their Lord and Savior, the Chosen One, Blessed Be His Name still holds Cabinet meetings and conducts himself as the 45th and current President of the United States. The Governors of Florida and Texas know that in the event of a hurricane, they need to go to him for aid. No one is going to risk a Christie.

The Hug of Death for Trumpican Governors (REUTERS/Larry Downing)

Everyone who sold their soul in the hopes of being the one chosen for 2024 as the successor sold their soul in vain. The only battle is over who he will pick to his Vice Presidential candidate. And if you are not a woman, do not even bother. Even niece Mary Trump has come around to the view that Donald will run again. After, the electoral game is rigged so he cannot lose in Arizona and Georgia in 2024.

 ALTERNATE REALITIES INTERSECT

At some point, probably prior to the 2022 elections, the alternate realities will intersect. They are not parallel rails extending forever, separate and never meeting. They are instead two trains on the same track on a collision course. The open question is which one will knock the other one off.

The Trumpican track will run until 2024. Then we will see if all the voter suppression and rigged elections efforts will prevail.

But there is another track that could shortchange that process even before the 2022 election. I am not referring to the criminal case in New York which is progressing at turtle speed.  The January 6 Committee knows that if it does not finish its job before the 2022 election and if the Democrats lose control of the House, then the plug will be pulled on it. In an instant, the House will shift from investigating January 6 to impeaching Joe Biden. That Sword of Damocles provides a much firmer deadline than does August 13 for Trumpicans.

By election 2022, the January 6 Committee needs to have identified, investigated, and interrogated

The hitman

His Congressional co-conspirators

His Department of Justice co-conspirators.

They need to have documented the timeline and to have prepared charges of sedition against those who sought to overthrow Constitutional rule in America and instigated the assault on January 6. While August 13 may be a joke the election deadline is a deadly serious one. If there is unfinished business by the 2022 elections, then then it may remain unfinished. The Committee does not have the option of moving the goalposts the way the Trumpicans do every time a deadline fails to deliver.

The Department of Justice has a longer deadline. It is not subject to the election results. Its investigation can continue. Still as we continue to learn more and more about how far the hitman was willing to go to overthrow the election and the Constitution, we realize how close we came to not celebrating our 250th birthday as a country. After Bill Barr, the Deluge. If only he had stayed a few more days we might never have heard of the Clark-Perry machinations because they would have been curtailed…or perhaps Barr saw what was coming and decided to bail before being entrapped in seditious activity.  Even he may have his limits. He should be asked under oath. The DOJ may need to up its game, show some vigor, and indict some people.

THE BRUTUS/HOWARD BAKER MOMENT

If and only if the January 6 Committee and the DOJ do their jobs, then there may be a window of opportunity to push aside the Loser once and for all. Then one of the soul-sellers will be positioned to be the candidate in 2024 instead. The Florida Covid Governor knows this. Ironically, for any one of the soul-sellers be nominated in 2024, they need the help of the Democrats. They need the Democrats to make him damaged goods. The hitman still will not leave the stage voluntarily, but maybe, just maybe, one of the soul-sellers will be willing to push him off once he is charged with sedition.

Dueling Anniversaries: July 4 and China 100th

Tiananmen Square Rehersal ( Roman Pelipey/EPA via Shuttlecock)
Trump Organization CFO (Jefferson Siegel for the New York Times)

The battle between the Borg and the Disunited Federation of Countries is engaged. The dueling images on the front page of The New York Times print edition on July 2 tell the story. If you only saw the website you would have missed the message delivered by the juxtaposition of these two images and articles. A picture is worth a thousand words so these pictures alone are sufficient for a battle report from the frontlines between the Middle Kingdom and the one-time City on a Hill.

CORONAVIRUS

The first item of note is that in the American picture the people are wearing masks while in the Chinese picture they are not. In so doing the images contrast the records of the two countries in the handling of the coronavirus. In general terms, regardless of the origin of the virus, the Chinese handling of it proved successful. The country went through some drastic steps which would not have been possible in a free country but which were eminently doable in a country devoid of both freedom and the desire to be free (outside of Hong Kong and those who lie back). The result was a country which snapped back to normalcy far quicker and far more successfully than anyone else. That record enabled China to assert the supremacy of its way of life and government over the democracies who failed abysmally in their responses.

As always, one must keep in the mind that the world does not watch Foxhub. What the world saw in the United States was country with a leader who was out of his league. His simple-minded and silly prognostications and recommendations guaranteed him a place of honor in the Hall of Ineptitude and Incompetence. He will be joined there by his counterparts in Brazil and India. In the years to come, people will not know whether to laugh at his stupidity and dishonesty or cringe in recognition at the hundreds of thousands of people who needlessly died as a direct result of the shortcomings of the greatest mass murderer of Americans in history. In time, more and more White House people will tell the tale of what really happened. In the battle for world leadership, score one for China over the United States due to the catastrophe of having an immature child as president during a crisis.

There are two caveats to this that can put America back in the game despite China’s success and America’s failure. First, China is a HAT country (Honest as Trump). That means China cannot tell the truth about the origin of the coronavirus. That failure undermines its position in the world. Second the American vaccines are superior. While the United States is not yet geared up to save the world, the rest of the world still is more willing to accept America’s role as the rescuer if we want the job. So at this point, China is ahead on the coronavirus, but as the American economy roars back, travel resumes, and vaccines are distributed, the United States can regain some of the status it lost under the previous administration provided there is no return.

“Audacious” TAX FRAUD versus THIRD TERM

The leaders of both countries want a third term and to rule for life. The image from China article shows Chinese people rehearsing for an event where the Chinese leader would all but announce his intention to govern for a third term, breaking the two term convention. There should be no doubt that he intends to govern for life and should be expected to do so.

The American photograph tells a different story. It shows the Chief Financial Officer of the Trump Organization being escorted to court. He stands accused of multiple accounts of audacious tax fraud over a fifteen-year period. So far the only defense offered by the Chief Executive of the organization is that such perks are standing operating procedure. Everybody does it. His acknowledgment that other people in the organization indulged in similar activities guarantees additional charges against addition people.

So far his preference to preside for life has not worked out. As least legally it has not. He no longer lives in the White House. The issue of how he would arrange for a third term has been replaced by a different consideration. He remains the real but-powerless President in his second term to tens of millions of Americans who yearn to return him to Office on January 20 or March 4 or in August or January 1, 2023 as Speaker of the House or back in White House in January 2025. The same people who think the coronavirus was a hoax, who would not wear a mask, who will not be vaccinated, and who vilify America’s health leaders, are eager for their Lord and Savior, the Chosen One, Blessed Be his Name, to be restored to power since only he can save them.

The contrast between a united China under one-man rule for life and a divided country could not be more stark. The Chinese leader speaks from a position of strength ruling a united country. By contrast the United States is a divided country experiencing a civil war. Local rulers are deploying military forces outside their jurisdiction in support of the policy they believe is the correct. I did not know that governors could deploy their military forces outside their state without federal authorization. Apparently they can and with private money funding these militias as well.

These actions guarantee a reciprocal action by state forces on the other side of the civil war in the event they deem it necessary.  One can anticipate such deployments at the two upcoming critical moments – the elections of 2022 and 2024. The forces assembled in the nation’s capital may there to remove Joe Biden from the White House or to keep him there or both. Either way, the ratcheting up of the level of confrontation in the United States will show to the world that we are not united, not a democracy, and not governed by the rule of law (except when the winning side changes the law to support its entrenchment in power). The global coverage of the American civil war in 2022 and/or 2024 will undermine any effort by the United States to maintain a leadership position in the battle with China.

After all the talk about the previous President being a Russian asset, his “Stop the Steal” dividing of America turns out to be the greatest gift he could have given the Chinese.

WAVING THE FLAG

A third image from the two front-page articles is of the Chinese waving their flags. True, the contrast between the masks in the American photograph and the flags in the Chinese photograph could be equalized. There are plenty of pictures of American’s waving flags at the nation’s capital. Take January 6, for instance. The difference between the two countries is that flags are a symbol of unity in China and division in the United States. Flags are becoming like masks, a weaponized symbol in the American Civil War. If you think “defund the police” was an incredibly stupid political slogan for Democrats, then their abandoning the flag and the claim of being patriots to the Trumpicans is an even bigger blunder.

The more Democrats cede the American flag and national anthem to the Trumpicans, the more they jeopardize their slim majorities in Congress. The more the Democrats cede the American Revolution 250th to the Trumpicans, the more they jeopardize both their slim majorities and the presidency. Between now and the elections in 2022 and 2024, the Woke will have numerous opportunities to enable Foxhub to characterize the Democratic Party as a party of traitors even though it was Trumpicans who lead the assault on America on January 6.

There are signs of hope, that all is not lost. Consider this example from an article “On July Fourth, Stars and Stripes and Division,” (July 4, 2021, NYT), an article that does have a picture of an American flag. It is a story about a farmer who displays a flag on his truck and the assumptions people make about his political views as a result. The article concludes with three vignettes about people who are neither Trumpican nor Woke and need someone to champion them.

The first example is from a white male Republican who sometimes votes Democrat. He flies the American flag and said:

There is a lot of history with this country, some that maybe people don’t like today, and some that people are being judged for today for what they did 300 years ago. It’s still our country, and very good and bad thing made it our country. And that’s what that [the flag] represents.

The second example is from a female El Salvadoran immigrant who wore an American flag T-shirt and intended to do so on July 4. She said in Spanish:

This symbolizes this country and I live in this country. This flag is for all.

The third example is an African American Democrat who used to display the flag regularly until recently. When she just saw a forest of flags not at a political rally but as a peaceful “field of honor” installed by the local rotary club in honor of people who had helped the community. It led her to say:

I’ve always loved the American flag so much, and now seeing it by the carousel I felt happy again. And I haven’t felt that way about the flag in such a long time.”   

These are the people on whom America must build its future if it wants to win the war against China for world leadership. The American Revolution 250th provides the opportunity to forge a We the People identity that we can showcase to the world. All we need is the leadership.

The White House or the Court House in August?: The Shrinking Loser

“But when my son was about 3, I realized his fictive worlds were vivid enough to continue without me. All he need, at first, was a listener.” (John Mahler, “New York at a Crossroad,” NYT 6/20/21) REUTERS/Gaelen Morse

Pre-millennialists generally avoid specifying a date for the return of Jesus. They do so because they have learned from experience. Every date they pick has come and gone without anything happening. Eventually the message sinks in: to avoid being laughed at do not identify the date.

By contrast, Pillow Head goes where pre-millennialists fear to tread. He named if not an exact date then an exact month when his Lord and Savior, the Chosen One, Blessed Be his Name would triumphantly return to power in a blaze of glory. The month is August 2021 and he still champions that date.

I confess I want to people to be believe Pillow Head’s prophecies. I want Trumpicans to be counting the days until the moment occurs. I want them to be glued to the screen of their choice waiting for Tucker or Sean to announce that the moment of moments has arrived. The Satanic pedophile forces of evil have been vanquished. The senile stealer of the election has been booted from the White House. Once again the forces of right and light have prevailed. I want this modern version of the Great Disappointment to be played out for all the real world to see as the alternate reality crashes and burns. There should be a betting line on when the day will be. Trumpicans should be interviewed on what they will do to celebrate it. The days are drawing down, let the countdown continue.

Where do things stand now?

AS ARIZONA GOES SO GOES THE NATION

According to the Gospel of Pillow Head, Arizona was the start point for the return to power. It would show the massive defeat of Biden that was reversed through fraud due to aliens from Italy, China, or Mars. Those UFOs are not here by chance!

From there the Cyber Ninjas would march through Georgia as the second coming of Sherman. They would find the 11,780 votes and then some. Michigan would be next. Devotees made pilgrimages to Arizona so they could replicate the Way of the Vote back home. Everything looked good for a successful reversal of the Electoral College vote of January 6 on paper. Even if they did not herald an immediate return to power, they would provide an unbeatable election cry for 2024 to right the wrong of the stolen election in 2020.

So far things are not working out as expected.

A Reagan-appointed judge in Georgia nixed the effort there. It is over in Georgia.

A Republican controlled State Senate Oversight Committee squashed the effort in Michigan. They did so in terms so insulting to the “Stop the Steal” movement you would have thought they were Democrats. There is “no evidence of widespread or systematic fraud.” “The Committee strongly recommends citizens use a critical eye and ear toward those who have pushed demonstrably false theories for their own personal gain.”

The outcry against them has been minimal. In nearby Ohio, the Loser President railed against the Michigan Republican leaders demanding his followers call them to change their ruling or be voted out of office. Do you think they are concerned? It is highly unlikely that they will be primaried or censured. The lack of outrage signals a dissipation of the Stop the Steal movement and the weakening of the power of the Loser ex-President. He can huff and puff and threaten to blow them all down but he cannot do it. It is over in Michigan.

Even worse, the Republican Senators admitted that since there had been no fraud in Michigan, there was no need for new laws to prevent it. In other words, the voter suppression laws have nothing to do with preventing fraud. Their purpose is to ensure that a repeat Biden victory does not occur in 2024. Perhaps one of the reasons Trumpicans can accept that the Loser ex-President will not be returned to power now is because of all the actions taken to legally prevent the Democratic candidate winning in 2024.

If you think the actions of the Cyber Ninjas have been ridiculed so far, wait until they disclose their findings. Wait until they produce the evidence that will convince the Supreme Court to cancel the January 6, 2021 vote and install the true winner as President effective immediately. If you think Séance Sydney was good for a few laughs in communicating with the dead, the Cyber Ninja evidence will be the death knoll for the Stop the Steal movement. There is no August return to the White House and no replacement date in sight until 2024.

If Florida or Texas need disaster recovery relief in the fall which President do you think they will contact? If there is a bipartisan infrastructure bill how can you maintain the lie when you just entered into an agreement with the illegitimate President? Even elected Trumpicans in Congress know it is time to move on….with some exceptions of course.

PREDICTING THE FUTURE

Predicting the future is easy. What else can you predict? The past? So here are my predictions.

1. The Durham report, the hope of Hannity for days, weeks, months, even years, will prove to be a Nothingburger.

2. The Horowitz report will prove there was spying at the highest levels against political opponents just as Foxhub said but it was by Trump and not Obama. This investigation does not get the airtime on Foxhub the original Horowitz report did. It will be a little like the movie Z as the truth is unraveled only this time the military is on the side of democracy.

3. The House Select Committee to investigate the January 6 will document the assistance by some Republicans, the instigation by the President, and the presidential unawareness of the difference between a TV show where the violence is fake news and the assault on America where it was real. It will even force Kevin McCarthy to tell the truth.

4. The COVID investigation will show the ineptness and incompetence of the immature child President lead to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans. If the Senate had done its job and removed him from office and made Mike Pence president those Americans would be alive today.

5. More and more insiders will expose the horrendous truth and callous evil of the Trump Presidency. The face-saving efforts of Bill Barred-for-Life is one example. The pathetic joyride in the hospital parking lot by the COVID President is another. Even more amazing, there actually were people in the White House who thought the infection of the immature child would cause him to grow up and take the disease seriously. It boggles the mind that anyone could think such nonsense. Getting COVID did not change the need of the biggest weeny in America from a fake display of his manliness. He will always be Macho Macho Boy pretending to be more; nothing can change that.

6. At some point, the Loser will realize even in his deranged alternate reality, that even though the election was stolen – he will believe that to his dying day – he will not be returned to the White House by his Supreme Court. What will he decide to do then? We probably have to wait for the results of the 2022 elections to find out. This mid-term election may be an anomaly in that instead of simple being a referendum about the current President, it will be one about the former President who wants to be the next President. That is good news for the Democrats.

7. The criminal and civil cases in Georgia, Washington, and New York will only become worse for him. He may even have to cut down as his golf which would be cruel and unusual punishment in his case even without being convicted.

One final prediction does not augur well for the Loser. His former Vice President Brownnose is no profile in courage. But he is the proverbial canary in the coal mine. When he took pride in his actions on January 6 in fulfilling his constitutional duties to certify the election of Joe Biden against the demand not to, he dared to put his loyalty to the Constitution over his obligations to the President of the United States. “If we lose faith in the Constitution, we won’t just lose elections — we’ll lose our country,” Pence said in a speech at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. Exactly right. But there are other ambitious would-be candidates for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, too. They can sense weakness. They can smell the blood in the water. They can see the rivals around them. The king will be dead and I want to be the new one. Republicans do not need Trump to campaign against the Woke. The more they realize that they are stronger without him then without him, the more likely the Howard Baker moment will be the Brutus moment of shoving the Loser aside.

Ninjas and the 2024 Presidential Election

Will John C. Calhoun be the real winner in 2024? (Portrait by George Peter Alexander Healy in Wikipedia)

America’s Third Civil War has taken some unusual and unexpected turns. My expectation as previously stated was that the 2020 Presidential Election immediately would lead to the Battle of Gettysburg. The forces of light would battle the forces of darkness in the battle of Armageddon for the future of the country. That is not exactly what happened and back then I had no idea what January 6 was.

When the post-election battle for America was engaged, it was different than expected. It was in one location and not nationwide. The forces arrayed on behalf of the Loser were smaller than I would have anticipated. Plus as bad as the assault on the Capitol was, the Trumpican insurrections did not achieve their objective of overthrowing the Constitutional Republic and replacing it with the Rule of Trump.

No office holders were executed in the attack. Think of how different the reaction might have been if the Trumpicans had hanged Mike Pence or executed Nancy Pelosi. Would the elected Trumpicans in the House and Senate still be as quick to gloss over the insurrection? Would Foxhub? We will never know.

NINJAS

The latest wrinkle in the Third Civil War has been the unleashing of ninjas to reverse the election results and restore the previous President to power. Their first battle is in Arizona. By using advanced ultraviolet technology not deployed in the previous audits of the votes and by tracking bamboo, the ninjas will determine that not only did Biden not win in Arizona, he lost by a huge amount. The fix was in.

The circus–is-in-town ninja audit does not change the facts of what they will claim they found. The possible DOJ interference if it comes will be too late. The ninjas are performing for an audience of one. That individual has expressed how delighted he is over the actions of these Patriots to expose the true lie of the 2020 election. He is counting the seconds until the moment when the ninjas go public and declare the election in Arizona stolen.

The announcement of this result will confirm what tens of millions already know. Whether or not the ninjas will name names, meaning identifying the people who should be prosecuted for perpetrating this fraud remains open. If the ninjas do not, then the Arizona Trumpicans will launch such an investigation to bring these criminals to justice.

The next battle in the ninja campaign to restore the rightful winner likely will be Georgia. Enthusiasm will be mounting as Trumpicans can see victory in sight. In Georgia, the ninjas will find the 11,780 votes that the Republican Secretary of State who needs to be replaced by a Trumpican could not find. Is there any doubt that the ninjas will be successful in not only finding those votes but even more as Biden truly lost the state in a landslide? Whether or not the ninjas will find the Senate votes were compromised too adds a twist to the campaign. Obviously the removal of two fraudulently-elected Georgia Senators would change the complexion of the Senate to the advantage of the Trumpicans right now. Ironically, at the same time as the ninjas will be reversing the Georgia vote, the prosecution of the former President in Georgia will be moving full speed ahead.

At this point, the ninjas will need only one more state to prove that the election was stolen. Exactly which one it will be will prove challenging. Meantime the Trumpicans will be in hyperdrive to finish the job. QAnon will be predicting total victory. The momentum will be unbelievable and the emotions off the chart.

REMEDY

Once the ninjas have exposed the truth of the stolen election then what? There is no doubt that the Loser expects to be returned to the White House now. Can states demand that the true winning slate of electors retroactively be counted in the Electoral College vote thereby reversing the results? There is no provision for that so the request will go to the Supreme Court. It is hard to imagine that it will rule to remove Joe Biden.

How about impeachment? The impeachment of the President is insufficient since Trumpicans do not want the current Vice President to become President now, in 2024, in 2028, or in midterm if the President resigns for health reasons. Besides if the President and the Vice President were removed that would make the Speaker of House the President. Trumpicans certainly do not want that now. Impeachment like the Supreme Court is not a viable option for the returning the Loser to the White House now.

But after the 2022 elections, Trumpicans expect a new Speaker. They take it for granted. So do many Democrats. Still there is no provision anywhere for the Speaker to stand aside to let a losing candidate become President. However, there is an opportunity for the Trumpican Speaker to impeach the Democratic President twice in 2023 and 2024. So what if it does not pass the Senate and he is not removed from office. He will have the stain on his record of having been impeached twice too. The Trumpican Speaker also can initiate investigations into the stolen election.

Realistically, there is no way the Congressional or Supreme Court level to reverse the election results. There is only one remedy for the ninja-revealed proof of the stolen election.

2024 REMEDY

The only remedy in the real world for the results of 2020 is the election of 2024. To those who say (as Michael Cohen does) that 2024 will not be a replay of 2020, I say they are wrong. First he will never leave the stage of his own free will. Second he will have all the proof he needs that he really won in 2020 and the election was stolen. Third he is a person of vengeance. He will be drooling in anticipation of pardoning everybody who is loyal to him, punishing those who are not, and becoming a three-time winner. He will use the stolen election idea as the theme of his candidacy.

So who will be the real losers of the successful ninja campaign to prove the election was stolen? All the soul-sellers who want to be the candidate in 2024 will find that there is no room at the top. The person who controls the Trumpican Party and has the stolen-election issue will be energized to run again. The soul-sellers will have to wait until 2028 at least.

There is a fly in the ointment. I am not referring to the ninjas failing to prove to the satisfaction of the Trumpicans that the election was stolen. I am referring to the 2022 elections. Suppose despite the voter suppression, the traditional loss of seats by the incumbent party in the midterm elections, the retirements, and the reapportionment, the Trumpicans do not seize control of the House yet alone the Senate? What happens if after over three years of anticipation, Kevin McCarthy discovers he sold his soul for nothing and still is out of power? Suppose Democrats follow the successful 2018 model and do not become the Diversity Party of all-race-all-the time? Unfortunately such results seem like a long shot. Still too early to tell but in America’s Third Civil War, Tom Friedman understates the gravity of the situation. The worst is still to come. I have expressed my fears that the United States as we know it will not survive to celebrate its 250th birthday. Expect John C. Calhoun to make a comeback no matter who wins in 2024.

Presidential Shrine versus Presidential Library for the Former Guy

Location of the Unpresidential Library (Google Maps)

The tradition of the Presidential Library began with Franklin Delano Roosevelt. The Library was located on his home grounds in Hyde Park where he had served as the local historian before moving on to bigger jobs. I used to take teachers there for professional development programs. Depending on the program we might be there for a few hours, a day, a weekend, or a week.

While we were there we would walk the grounds, tour the buildings, meet with the curators, and even have dinner at Top Cottage as Roosevelt and Churchill once had. Over the years a visitor center was built and the Library was renovated. More public programs and conferences were held. A shuttle between the site and the Poughkeepsie train station was established. It was no longer necessary for visitors to come by car, they could take the train and spend a day with the Roosevelts. The complex was a major destination site in Duchess County.

Since that low-key origin, a lot has happened. Presidential libraries have become a major phenomena that have outgrown the private property of a former president. They also have become prestigious academic institutions. Even pre-Roosevelt Presidents have gotten into the act. Existing sites have been upgraded to become research centers and not just places for a house tour.

So what does all this mean for the 45th President?

PRESIDENTIAL SHRINE LOCATION

First, where would the Presidential shrine be located? It could not be in Queens where he was born and grew up. He hasn’t lived there in years, is disconnected from that site, and probably not welcome there. The only time he might to be in Queens is when landing at an airport. It’s hard to imagine him watching the U.S. Open there once tournaments are back to normal. Its international audience hardly seems Trumpican!

It could not be in Manhattan either. He no longer lives there. He is likely only to be there for judicial reasons in the years to come. It is hard to imagine the United Nations inviting him to speak there…or any of the law schools! It is conceivable that he would at some point donate a tower to be the Presidential Library. Naturally he would take a huge write off which would immediately be subject to investigation. Besides, do Trumpicans really want to travel to New York to worship their Lord and Savior, the Chosen One, Blessed Be his Name? I suspect not.

It could not be at a university with which he is affiliated. He isn’t affiliated with one. He had to pay someone to take the tests so he could get into an Ivy League school. We may never learn whom he paid to write his papers and take his tests once he matriculated. He has had no contact with his alma mater as President nor is there any sign that the University of Pennsylvania welcomes him. Pity the poor college that lands a graduate in the White House and is ashamed.

Perhaps there is another college which may seek to house his shrine. There are many evangelical seminaries and colleges throughout the land and which have sufficient open space. Presumably at least one of them would be more than eager to be the location for the shrine to the 45th. Trumpicans would flock there and it would make a great recruiting tool. So keep in mind the possibility of the shrine being located on a religious campus.

Finally, there are his own properties including where he now resides in Florida. These golf courses have plenty of land. Once again there would be a huge write off which would be investigated. But in a way we would have come full circle: the library could be located on the home of the former president.

PRESIDENTIAL SHRINE CONTENTS

This past weekend, we were witness to a preview of what the Presidential Shrine would look like. Besides the golden calf courtesy of a true believer, we could see that the shrine would be dedicated to him as America’s greatest president. It would bear witness to his deserved status as a Mount Rushmore President. Better yet, he deserves his own mountain since he is in a class by himself.

The shrine would be dedicated to all his victories over the forces of evil that tried to cancel him. His triumphant battles against Deep State hoaxes and Fake News reports would feature prominently. His enemy list would be displayed. There would be testimonials from his worshipers. Truly it would be a religious experience like to Graceland itself with suitable souvenirs available for sale at the gift shop.

THE UNPRESIDENTIAL LIBRARY LOCATION

What about the location for the Unpresidential Library? What about the location of the research center for people interested in the truth about the 45th? What about the people who want to know the truth about his failed business career, his abuse of women, his Russian collusion, his Ukrainian attempted extortion, his mismanagement of the coronavirus, his attempt to steal the election, his attempt to end the American constitutional republic, his nastiness, his lack of morals, ethics, conscience, empathy, sympathy, and compassion. Where will they go?

As it turns, such a library location for the loser President has been found. It is a prime piece of real estate in 45th’s former beloved borough of Manhattan where his building career began.

The following comes from an obituary to Sheldon Solow, a real estate developer in New York.

Sheldon H. Solow, Manhattan Real Estate Mogul, Dies at 92

By Robert D. McFadden (Nov. 17, 2020, NYT)

But Mr. Solow’s most ambitious and visionary undertaking, by far, was his unfinished $4 billion project to transform the 9.2-acre site of a former Con Edison power plant on the East River into seven glass towers, with 4.8 acres of gardens, lawns and esplanades. The site, just south of the United Nations headquarters, was the largest undeveloped, privately owned plot in Manhattan.

A decade after buying the sprawling property in three parcels with a partner for $630 million in 2000 and spending $125 million more to demolish the power plant and clean up toxic debris, Mr. Solow was still bogged down in public-approval processes, community resistance, financing issues and other problems. He had shed his partner but had not yet begun to build on the site.

In 2013, he sold the southern parcel for $172 million. Two residential towers were built, but not by Mr. Solow. His first building on the site, a 42-story condominium-and-rental tower on the west side of First Avenue between 39th and 40th Streets, was finished in 2018. But most of the site, bounded by 41st and 38th Streets, First Avenue and the F.D.R. Drive, has remained a grassy wasteland, awaiting three residential condominium towers and an office building that were approved in a master plan in 2008.

This ideal location would pack people in by the thousands. The Unpresidential Library of the former guy would be an international destination site. In the past I have written several blogs about the Unpresidential Library (Fox & Friends and the Unpresidential Library April 30, 2018; The Unpresidential Library: The Adolescent Room, July 30, 2019;  Murderers’ Row: The Trump Hall of Fame October 27, 2020 among others). Now is the time to start planning it. Is there a university in Manhattan that would like to be the lead academic institution for the Unpresidential Library? Is there a history organization that would like to be the lead history organization for the Unpresidential Library? Is there a rich person or rich people who want to ensure that the 45th is remembered for the true person that is and not as the Presidential Shrine will portray him? Let’s make it so.

Kamala Harris Vows to Do What Mike Pence Didn’t Do

Trumpican Justice (ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP/Getty Images)

In 2021, Vice President Mike Pence did not have the courage to do what should have been done to protect our Country and the Constitution. The penalty for the failure to rise to the occasion and be a profile in courage to save the country is simple, direct, and brutal: death, death by hanging, death by hanging in public. However despite the efforts of the domestic trumperists, Mike Pence escaped the fate he deserved. No wonder the Loser President was enraged and declined to express any concern about the safety of the Vice President who was not loyal.

Kamala Harris is well aware of the new rules. She does not want to be lynched. Therefore she will do what needs to be done to avoid the lynching Mike Pence managed to escape. To prevent a reoccurrence she is putting the states on notice that their electors will be subject to disqualification. In particular, she will warn the states implementing voter suppression bills. If the votes in those states in 2024 do not support the Democratic candidate, she will prevent the Trumpican effort to steal the election and disqualify those Electors through the powers granted to the Vice President in the Constitution.

ELECTION RULE CHANGES

The election rules have changed. Never again will presidential elections be as simple as they once were. I don’t mean there weren’t contentious elections in the past. I mean that once upon a time, people knew what the rules were. Now they have changed.

Once the actual vote on Election Day mattered. Now it doesn’t.
Once the certification of the vote mattered. Now it doesn’t.
Once the Electoral College vote mattered. Now it doesn’t.
Once evidence mattered. Now it doesn’t.
Once the Congressional ratification was routine. Now it is all that matters.

STOP THE STEAL: 2022 AND 2024

Given the importance of Congress in determining what Electoral College votes to count, control of Congress looms ever more important than it already was. The Trumpicans are fully aware of how critical control of Congress is in the selection of the President. They are moving full bore in an open and brazen manner to rig the vote count and steal the election(s). It is an all-out national assault on a state-by-state basis where they are in control of the legislature. It almost as if there is a special Olympics to see which state can best rig the count in elections and the gerrymandering to ensure that the Trumpicans remain in power at the state level and regain power at the federal level.

What are Democrats going to do about the Trumpican STEAL THE VOTE initiative?

Will the Democrats launch their own STOP THE STEAL counterattack to prevent the Trumpicans from succeeding? Does this effort even have a campaign name that will be used repeatedly?

Will the Democrats pass national legislation FOR THE PEOPLE to curtail such effort? In time to make a difference?

Will the Democrats will prepare a list of dos and don’ts. This list should include specific actions that Trumpicans do to rig the vote through voter suppression. The Democrats should announce that the application of these STEAL THE VOTE actions by states will be grounds for disqualification of Electors. The list also will include specific actions to promote voter turnout which if not done, also will result in disqualification of Electors. Of course, if the efforts to rig the vote fail and the state votes Democratic, then the Electors will be accepted.

Unlike the 2020 election, the scrutiny of the vote will not be limited to the Presidential vote. Senate and House elections will be subject to the same rules as applied to the Presidential election. Efforts to rig the vote for one federal position will be treated as applying to all federal offices. Just as the Presidential Electors will be disqualified in event of the rigging of the vote through voter suppression, so Senators and Representative elected through voter suppression similarly will not be seated.

Trumpicans have shown Democrats the way to win elections regardless of the vote and lack of evidence. The one and only method of determining the winners is through Congress. Those bodies in themselves may be subject to challenge if supposed House and Senate winners are the result of rig elections. The stop the steal effort will be expanded to all federal positions so by the time Congress meets to certify the Presidential elections, there may be open issues as to who is to be seated.

ELECTION CHALLENGES 2022 AND 2024

Obviously it is still early, but there still are some thoughts to consider. At this point, 2024 is shaping up as a rematch of 2020. It would be the first rematch since Adlai Stevenson and Dwight Eisenhower in 1956.

Spoiler Alert: the rematch didn’t change the results from the 1952 election.

Barring any medical and/or criminal procedures, there is no alternative for Trumpicans from the founder of the Trumpican Party, their Lord and Savior, the Chosen One, Blessed be his Name. Indeed, his worshipers rolled out a golden calf before which they could frolic as they sang his praises as if they were reliving a scene from the Bible. As things stand now, he will be the candidate for as long as he wants before turning over the Trumpican Party to a junior version of himself. It is almost funny watching politicians sell their souls to be the chosen one as if the Trumpican party could anoint a non-Trump and that he would ever relinquish power.

The few Republicans left in the Party have four choices in the real world:
1. stay at home and don’t vote
2. swallow their pride and vote Trumpican
3. support the Democratic candidate as long as it is Joe Biden
4. launch an independent candidacy in the tradition of Teddy Roosevelt, George Wallace, Ross Perot, and Ralph Nader and hope they make a difference the right way.

If they choose to nominate a Republican, then time is running out to start the 50-state effort to create a third party especially given that the Trumpicans in power at the state level will obstruct the effort to do so.

The Democrats have no reason to be complacent.

Joe Biden was the only Democrat who could win in 2020. That still may be true in 2024.

Without the coronavirus, Joe Biden might have lost.

Even with the coronavirus, Joe Biden might have lost if the Loser had worn a mask, faked compassion, and put Mike Pence in charge.

In order for Joe Biden to win, a major effort behind the scenes was undertaken to ensure a safe and fair election in 2020 as just detailed in a major article in Time. Whether or not that effort is repeated in 2024 remains to be seen.

The Democrats still have to decide what to do about the loss of House seats and state legislatures in 2020 and the impact of the 2020 Census moving forward.

The Democrats still have to struggle to hold the House in the post-Census districts. There are reasons why Kevin McCarthy is foaming at the mouth anticipation of 2022 when he is not otherwise kissing the Donald’s ring on bended knee.

The Democrats still have deal with the fact that at any given moment the Woke will hand the Trumpicans an issue on a silver platter again and again.

The Democrats still have to deal with the fact they have maxed out the votes they can gain by playing the race card. Many of the voters the Democrats have been taking for granted for years actually identify as Americans, are proud to be Americans, and don’t wallow in 1619. The Trumpican Party made unexpected inroads with the supposed Democratic hyphen-voters in 2020 without even trying. An adult Republican could clean up with those voters unless the Democrats change their ways. Even a Trumpican could make additional inroads if the candidate caught on to this movement. It might not even be necessary for Trumpicans to steal the election in 2024 if the Democrats continue to alienate their hyphens.

The Woke effort to create Trumpican votes will be relentless. Their success in alienating Americans continues unabated. They have been so successful, the ridicule against them as seeped out into the general public and is not just confined to Foxhub. The cancel culture has become a national joke.

To counter the Trumpican STEAL THE ELECTION effort, the Democrats need to launch their STOP THE STEAL counterattack now.

To counter the Woke and the Trumpicans, Joe Biden needs to keep reaching out to all the American people in his speeches, his legislation, and his actions. Good thing for the Democrats the pandemic should be over, the economy will have recovered and that Joe Biden is a nice guy unlike that former guy.

WWG1WGA: How Republicans Can Defeat Trumpicans

Can Closet Republicans Gain their Courage? (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cowardly_Lion)

There is nothing inherently political about “where we go one, we go all.” It contains no message overt or covert that is political. It is a phrase of solidarity. It could be used by Superbowl football teams huddling before running out on the field. It existed for over two decades without having the meaning used by QAnon today.

It offers a powerful sense of belonging and community to disparate individuals scared of the world around them. It can provide solace and strength to those who need the former and lack the latter. If you heard the phrase outside the political arena, you might think you had walked into a group self-help session.

REPUBLICANS AS TARGETS

Right now the closet Republicans are in a bind. They despise the loser defendant for what he is doing to the Republican Party yet they fear his power. They have watched those who have dared to defy him in House and Senate votes be censured, canceled, and primaried by the Trumpicans who control the party infrastructure and who make up the vocal and dominant base.

Every time a closet Republican votes as a Republican instead of a Trumpican, they become a sitting duck.  They are exposed as individuals especially because there are so few of them. There is strength in numbers. There is strength in where we go 1 we go all. There is strength in acting together.

People in the know (Jeff Flake, Charlie Dent, Rick Wilson…) have talked repeatedly about how many closet Republicans there are in Congress. Their calculations for the Senate all suggest that something in the 35 range would vote Republican and not Trumpican in a secret ballot to convict. They might in an open ballot if they said WWG1WGA. Theoretically, it is still possible. Imagine Mitch McConnell leading the closet Republicans in the chant “Where WE Go 1 We Go All” before leading the charge onto the political playing field. It would make a good movie but it is not realistic. It won’t happen.

If I had a dollar for every time a host or guest on one of the cable talk shows about the powerful debate presentations, then I could retire a billionaire. The arguments of the House managers were powerful. The testimony was powerful. The videos were powerful. Everything was powerful and compelling.

It also was meaningless for now but not for history. Historians will study the presentation. Scholars will examine it and the additional information that is sure to come out. The future will note how few profiles in courage there were among the closet Republicans.  The legacy of the closet Republicans who failed the country will be exactly that: they failed to hold accountable the President of the United States who waged a war on the constitutional republic culminating in an assault on Congress as the members were voting to certify an election. Not only will they live with that legacy but so will their children and their children’s children. And the closet Republicans don’t care.

THE FINAL STRAW

The vote the day after Lincoln’s birthday to absolve the President who sought to destroy the country Lincoln gave his life to save will be the final straw for many Republicans. The moment will  be remembered as the moment the assertions that the Republican Party is the party of Trump and not Lincoln is made official.

It will also be the day when Lincoln Republicans say enough is enough. There already have been enrollment declines in multiple states as longtime Republicans head for the hills. More will follow once the capitulation to Trump is finalized in the impeachment vote.  This vote is for the record and for the record the Republican Party is the party of Trump.  What are you going to do about it?

THIRD PARTY

Third Parties don’t do so well in American politics. However they can be a factor in individual elections. Ross Perot, George Wallace, and Teddy Roosevelt did make a difference elections once. True, they did not create a long-lasting party but they did make a difference in the short run. Even the Republican Party emerged out of the debris left by the collapse of the Whig Party.

A third party can make a difference in 2024…especially for the Democrats. Nikki (buying back her soul) Haley has made the political calculation that her chance to be President is more likely as a Republican than a Trumpican. Perhaps she recognizes that he will run again. Perhaps she recognizes that there is a crowded field seeking to be his anointed successor. Perhaps she is truly disgusted with the way he treated his Vice President, a person she knows. Whatever the reason or reasons, she has made a decision that the closet Republicans in the Senate fear to make.

It is quite possible she is not the only one who will make that decision.  True a third party means the Democratic Party is likely to win in 2024. Normally the incumbent President wins re-election anyway unlike the 2020 election. Based on this analysis, sacrificing the 2024 election to position yourself for 2028 is not such a bad decision depending on your age.

However that decision rests on two gambles:

1. the current President will run for re-election in 2024
2. the Trumpicans either will rejoin the real world or there will be sufficient Republicans to take back the party after another loss in 2024.

There is no way to know now what will happen. Each person with presidential ambitions will make their own decision.

Despite what one might think given the alternate reality in which Trumpicans live, there are some events which might cause a re-evaluation. Think of the Trumpican prophecies not just about the election but what would happen afterwards.

1. Will March 4 be the date their Lord and Savior, the Chosen One, Blessed Be his Name, returns to his rightful home in the White House? How many times can you keep changing the date without looking like an idiot?
2. Will your community be overrun by Antifa-Salvador-Chinese terrorists?
3. Will you and/or your neighbors be taken to a “re-education” camp?
4. Will you lose your right to freedom of speech and the right to assemble?
5. Will the stock market crash (always a gamble)?
6. Will sleepy-creepy Joe Biden already in the nursing home with one foot in the grave finally die?

What happens if:

1. the pandemic ends
2. the economy recovers
3. life goes back to normal?

What happens when millions of people suffer from post-trumpatic stress syndrome and are forced to live in the real world?

Closet Republicans are thinking short-term. Many of them are not up for re-election in 2022. Even if they are, a lot will happen between now and then. The information about his medical condition when he had Covid is just an example. Eventually even the Cowardly Lion gained courage. It is time for Closet Republicans to do the same.

Confederates Seceded, Trumpicans Did Not: America’s Third Civil War

News research at Foxhub

During America’s Second Civil War, Confederates seceded from the United States. During the current civil war, Trumpicans remain in the United States and the halls of Congress even as they advocated for the overthrow of the democratic process. Confederates expressed no desire to rule over the North. By contrast, the Trumpicans want to govern the entire country including over people they don’t consider to be Real Americans. The result is a very awkward situation where people who do not recognize the legitimacy of the current President still vote on the legislative proposals submitted by him if only to oppose them. Imagine if this situation had existed during the Second Civil War.

THE 1864 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

According to Abraham Lincoln, the states of the Confederacy never legally left the Union. There was no Constitutional provision for such an action, so officially we always were one country. That argument is a weak one. After all there was no provision to declare independence from the British Empire either. Yet we did it. From the British perspective, we always were the 13 colonies. It was only with the Treaty of Paris that Britain recognized that we were in fact an independent country.

Now suppose, the Confederacy had decided to call Lincoln’s bluff. Suppose during the election of 1864, the Confederates had sent electors to Washington pledged to support Jefferson Davis for president of the United States. In that scenario, would the electors have been accepted for the vote in the Electoral College and certification by the Congress?

The odds are “no.” Still one wonders what hoops the Union would have gone through to deny the legitimacy of the Confederate electors while still proclaiming the existence of Union including those very same Confederate states. In fact, the recently captured-by-the-Union states of Louisiana and Tennessee did hold elections although their electors were not counted. Although the defeated candidate barely won any states, he did win 45% of the vote. If the Confederates had voted the election results would have been quite different. Here is where we could use a novelist/screen writer to tell the story of the alternate universe where the Union accepted the Confederate electors and Lincoln was defeated. After all, although Lincoln is considered our greatest President except in San Francisco and by the Republican Party, there was a lot of opposition to him during the war.

THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

If we flash forward to the present, the situation is quite different. Even though the Trumpican Party effort to steal the election was unsuccessful, they have paid no price for the attempt. The traitors who sought to subvert the election are far more welcome in Congress than Robert E. Lee ever was. In fact, for all intents and purposes it is business as usual on legislative matters. Trumpicans will still oppose the legislative agenda of the President. The margins are tight in both the House and especially the Senate as the recent tie-breaking vote by the Vice President demonstrates. There may be times when the Democrats wish the Trumpicans would leave just as their predecessors had in 1861. Unfortunately for the Democrats, the Trumpicans know better. In fact they are chomping at the bit in anticipation of regaining power in both houses of Congress in 2022.

Former Senator Jeff Flake had always suggested that there many closet Republicans within the Trumpican Party. On the outside, they toed the party line, but underneath they were still Republicans. They were well aware of the shortcomings of the immature-child president with no conscience, no ethics, no morals, who was incapable of telling truth and who only cared about himself. Still they feared the proverbial base and behaved as good little Trumpicans even if their heart wasn’t it.

Now thanks to a slew of votes we have a better sense of where the Congressional members of the Republican Party stand. We know who pledge their first loyalty to the loser President and who pledge their first loyalty to the Constitution.

1. The public action in support of the Supreme Court case to overthrow the election.
2. The public vote on certification of the electors.
3. The public vote on the impeachment of instigator of the insurrection to overthrow the government.
4. The secret ballot vote on the fate of the #3 person in House.
5. The public vote to remove a loser loyalist from two committees (not to expel her).

These all provide some insight into the validity of the claims by Flake and Rick Wilson among others. There still are substantial Republican majorities in both houses over the Trumpicans provided the vote is secret. In public votes, there are only a handful willing to cross the line (Note – two who did on Marjorie Taylor Greene had local issues regarding 9/11 and school shootings so their votes should not be construed to suggest their first loyalty is to the Constitution).

MTG VERSUS AOC

For two years now Foxhub has been touting the Squad with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the real power in the House and the Democratic Party. According to its version AOC is the face of the Democratic Party and Foxhub is sure to display it every opportunity they have.

By contrast in the real world, Nancy Pelosi runs a tight ship. She remains in charge. The insurrectionists unsuccessfully targeted her…and AOC too. Still the claim that the Squad runs the show is pure wishful thinking but apparently just what the Foxhub audience wants to believe.

The situation with Marjorie Taylor Greene differs She very rapidly has made herself the face of the Republican Party. In fact, the Democrats were quick to rebrand the party as QOP, the party of QAnon. One may expect that branding to continue right through the next election. After all, the Democratic Party has held no such vote on the merits of AOC. The QOP meanwhile has fully embraced MTG as its face.

There was a time when I thought QAnon and MTG would be the final straw. I knew the Trumpicans would never publicly disavow the Loser President. January 6 proved that in the House and will prove that in the Senate shortly.

But I thought such obeisance might not carry over to MTG even though she had his support. Nationwide, Trumpicans do not necessarily know her or have the same visceral commitment to her that they have to person who scammed over 2 million people to send him over ¼ billion dollars simply by asking for it, perhaps the largest con by number of people in the history of the United States. I really thought MTG might be the line they wouldn’t cross, the bridge too far, the final straw. Boy, was I wrong.

What does all this mean for the ongoing civil wars between the GOP and QOP? Will it have to become the TOP if MTG starts getting too much publicity for the recluse in-exile?  And then there is the original civil war between the two national parties. Despite all the talk about unity there won’t be any. Instead there will be a lot of resolutions and Vice President voting. Republicans retirements are creating openings in the Senate. Republican state legislators are ramping up their voter suppression even before the new Congressional district lines are drawn.  Electoral College delegates are transferred among the states. The playing field keeps changing. 2022 and the bicentennial of the 1824 presidential elections are shaping up as do-or-die battlefields where no election is accepted as legitimate by the loser.

Will the Constitutional Republic Survive America’s Third Civil War?

For want of wearing a mask, the presidency was lost. (https://nailstip.blogspot.com/2019/08/for-want-of-horseshoe-nail.html)

The fate of the constitutional republic of the United States of America remains unknown. Will it survive to celebrate its 250th anniversary? Will it dissolve into its constituent parts? Will it simply muddle along under constant strain because the alternative is too scary?

No one knows the answer to these questions. Before beginning a series of history blogs on the subject, I would like to note how easy it would have been for the constitutional republic already to have ended. A lot of things had to work out for us to get even this far and anyone one of them could have turned out differently.

THERE COULD HAVE BEEN A BIGGER TURNOUT ON 1/6

Approximately 8000 people showed up on January 6, not all of them armed. When I first wrote Seven Days in January: This Time It Is Not a Movie on January 3, I asked what would happen if different combinations of heavily-armed right wing militias had stormed the Capitol. I wondered if there were sufficient ground forces to stop them. Now we know. Even with the lower number of insurrectionists the defensive forces were inadequate to do the job.

1. Why weren’t there adequate forces to defend the Capitol?
2. Why was the turnout for the insurrection so low?
3. Despite the low numbers, what would the response have been if Mike Pence had been hanged and Nancy Pelosi had been killed?

SUPPOSE THE TRUMPICANS HAD BEEN AS WELL ORGANIZED AS THE WOKE

The Woke were prepared for the post-election attempt by the Trumpicans to steal the election; the Trumpicans were not. The Woke correctly anticipated the Trumpican attempt to steal the election. They had planning sessions as to what to do. More importantly, they had planning sessions on what not to do: No cries to “Defund the Police.” No toppling of statues. No burning of flags. They conducted training sessions. They planned for contingencies. They coordinated. They vowed not to provide Trumpicans with the slogans and photo-ops that would undermine their cause. They were organized, disciplined, ready and successful.

By contrast, the Trumpican side was true to their leader. He bought a lifetime of incompetence and ineptitude to managing his post-election attempt to steal the election. He was not prepared at all. He had no planning sessions. He developed no strategies. He organized nothing. When your legal effort is being led by Rudy Giuliani and Sidney Powell, you know you have a weak case. Everything was ad hoc, impulsive, on the fly. The DOJ wasn’t ready; in the end a nobody from left field attempted to stage a coup within the department that went nowhere. In the end the corporations that were being accused of criminal activity based on wishful thinking decided to strike back through legal action.

The planning for the insurrection itself consisted of a call to show up, attend a rally, and walk to the Capitol – it will be wild. There was no planning about what the people should do once they got inside the Capitol. As Mary Trump said about her uncle, a child in the body of an adult with the emotional maturity of a three-year old, he “enjoyed every second…He is a physical coward but he’s perfectly happy when other people commit violence on his behalf.” Even the rightwing groups mocked the effort for being unorganized and inadequately planned. Once inside, the insurrectionists were busy taking selfies and souvenirs. Skilled revolutionaries they were not.

1. Suppose next time the insurrection leader is an adult?
2. Suppose next time the insurrectionists turn out in force and do have a plan?
3. Suppose next time the Woke aren’t as well organized and prepared to stop the steal?

WHAT IF THE CORONAVIRUS HAD OCCURRED EARLIER IN HIS TERM?  

On numerous occasions during the pandemic, various people in the administration have made fools of themselves for their ineptitude, incompetence, and ignorance. They did not understand the science nor did they want do. One of the questions historians will ask, if they aren’t already, is why did the eventual loser throw away the opportunity to be a winner.

1. Imagine if he had worn a mask.
2. Imagine if had pretended to be sympathetic.
3. Imagine if he had put Mike Pence in charge.

Of course, he couldn’t change who he was even though it cost him the election. He simply was too simple-minded, narcissistic and lacking in mental necessities to transform the virus into a leadership challenge as a wartime president. Instead all he cared about was the Dow Jones and once that crisis was solved he lost interest.

But if the virus had struck earlier and if the vaccine had been ready earlier and if the vaccine had been distributed earlier and America was looking back on the virus on election day the way China is, he would have been re-elected. He will never understand that.

WHAT IF THE DEMOCRATS HAD NOT NOMINATED JOE BIDEN?

While 7 million votes is a lot numerically, in percentage terms, it is not that great. A small shift of votes in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, and one congressional district and there would have been no need to try to steal the election. All things considered, that is not a lot of votes. It also shows how thin the Democratic bench is and how Democrats may need Biden to run again in 2024 to prevent a Trumpican victory.

Our next presidential election is the bicentennial of the election of 1824. That presidential election was one of the ugliest in American history. There were five candidates. American was transitioning from the First Party system of Federalists and Anti-Federalists/Republicans of Adams and Jefferson to the Second Party system of Whigs and Democrats with Clay/Webster and Jackson. I first wrote about it in September 2016 The Presidential Election of 1824: Lessons for Today and tried to resume the discussion in December 2020 Biden and Cuomo: The End of an Era. In that blog I wrote about the Diversity Party and the Democratic Party as two of the parties. The question was how long the two factions could remain united in one party. The answer is still unknown but I think it is safe to say both groups understand the stakes if they don’t.

In that blog, I deferred writing about the corresponding division of the other party between the Republicans and the Trumpicans. In a little more than a month since then, that division has become obvious to everyone. The actions of the state parties such as in Arizona and really-off-the-rails Oregon, the votes in the House on the electors and the impeachment, the vote in the Senate on constitutionality of the impeachment all show that there is no civil war in the Republican Party. The Trumpicans have won. The Republicans are retiring from the battlefield. The Lincoln Project Republicans aren’t welcome anymore and they know it. There is no place for them.

Mitch McConnell is four years too late to battle to save the Republican Party from the Trumpicans. He got his tax cut to help rich people get richer and he got his judges. If the price is the destruction of the Republican Party for the Trumpican Party, then he will have to decide if it was worth it. The people who need to set up a third party are the Republicans and not the Trumpicans. There is no Republican Party left to take back.

That is why the fate of the constitutional republic remains unknown and precarious. The United States of America now has one national party that is dedicated not to the rule of law under the Constitution but to the wishes of one immature individual with no conscience, no ethics, and no morals. For now at least, he is in complete control of his party. The vaunted Biden working relationships with members across the aisle means nothing. Those are the Republicans on their way out. He has no Senate experience with Trumpicans. He has no House experience with Trumpicans. They do not consider him legitimate.

The Democrats still control the House…by a little and the in-power Party tends to lose seats in the non-Presidential election. The Democrats barely control the Senate but there still are some Republicans left there so some legislation may be possible. The Democrats have no margin for error. The continued existence of the United States of America as a constitutional republic depends on them not making one.