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Ukraine

Ukraine: Putin has a Plan B, Biden Doesn’t

October 11, 2023
by Peter Feinman
Who Has the Better Plan B in Ukraine? (Wikipedia)

Who is better positioned to win in Ukraine? The person with a Plan B or the person without one? When the war began way back in February, 2022, no one expected the situation which now exists. Russia expected to win fairly quickly. The United States expected Russia to win fairly quickly. Only Ukraine itself expected/hoped that the Russian plan for a quick success would fail. We now know that Ukraine was correct. The Russian military, while big, bad, and ugly, was not quite the lean, mean, fighting machine it had been puffed up to being. Not only did it fail in its original objectives, it failed to hold on to what it had conquered. Time for the Russian Plan B.

RUSSIAN PLAN B

Putin was ready with a Plan B not that he would have called it that. His plan was to hunker and bunker in the eastern provinces and to wait out the West. Plan B did not require any particularly imaginative or creative thinking. It simply drew on the massive forces at his disposal. They would draw a line in the sand and wait. The waiting game was the path to victory not only on the battlefield in Ukraine but on the battlefield in the United States and Europe.

In the United States, Putin’s Russian asset is poised for another presidential nomination. While the election of Trump would not mean the conflict would end in a single day, it would mean the United States would pull the plug on aid to Ukraine effective January 20, 2025. Plus the handwriting would be on the wall even earlier once the vote was known back in December formally and in November informally. So if Putin can hold out for 13 months from now it could be game over.

Depending on how the latest developments in the House of Representatives works out, it could be even earlier. His many admirers there also could pull the plug on American aid long before January 20, 2025. At this point in time, Putin has no incentive to settle for anything less than total victory until he knows the election results.

BIDEN PLAN A

In contrast to Putin, Biden remains stuck in Plan A. It is a measured sober tit-for-tat response to whatever Putin does. The initiative always remains with Putin. Based on what is happening on the battlefield, the United States then responds with the appropriate military equipment. Biden’s response is totally dictated by the actions of Putin and his military forces. The aid is sufficient to keep Ukraine in the game but not sufficient for Ukraine to win. The United States policy lets he war drag on World War I style. Based on the American policy, there is no light at the end of the tunnel.

Even if one supports American aid to Ukraine that is not a winning strategy in itself. There may be no American troops directly involved. However American arms and the military manufacture of those arms are directly involved.

Right now Biden’s Plan A in Ukraine is another forever war.

PROPOSED BIDEN PLAN B

There always is the possibility of a Ukrainian military breakthrough. It has opened a path in the Black Sea. Perhaps the Russian defensive fortifications will break down at a single point and the Ukrainian army will pour through cutting of the Russians from their Motherland. But perhaps not.

Just in case, here are some steps which can be taken if the United States were to think outside the box instead of remaining trapped in a rut.

DECLARE A NO ARTILLERY ZONE

After the first Iraq war, the United States declared a no-fly zone in the northern part of the country. The establishment and enforcement of the zone enabled the Kurds to build back better without having to look over their shoulder every moment and live in fear and insecurity about when they would be attacked next.

Something similar could be done in Ukraine. Roughly 80% of the country remains in Ukrainian control without the presence of Russian troops. Unfortunately, the Russian artillery still targets this area. What we need to do is to make clear to Putin that henceforth the 80% is off limits to Russian artillery.

For the no-artillery zone to be effective, the United States needs to make crystal clear to Putin in no uncertain terms, what the cost will be to Russia for the violation of the no-artillery zone. Some obvious options include the destruction of the Russian infrastructure used to support the Russian soldiers in the remaining 20% of Ukraine. This means bridges, railroads, supply depots and so on. The Russian troops should be notified by leaflets and social media of what is to come so they can prepare as best they can in anticipation of Putin violating the no-artillery zone. Could this lead to direct American-Russian confrontations and nuclear war? While theoretically such a result is possible. But all Russia has to do to prevent this is to stop being “Hamas.” Stop bombing civilians. Stop bombing women and children. Stop bombing old people. Concentrate your military power on the battlefield where it belongs.

CRANES FOR UKRAINE

As I have pleaded several times before to no avail, the time to start rebuilding Ukraine is now. Rubble needs to be cleared. Bombed buildings need to be collapsed and cleared. Designing the cleared areas for the rebuilt cities needs to be done now. The initiation of a 15-Marshall Plan will put Putin on notice that he will not destroy Ukraine. The most he has to fight for is his own forever war in the 20% where the battle still rages.

Somewhere along the line, even the Russian generals will realize that they have nothing to fight for. True, Russia is much bigger than Ukraine and can waste more and more troops on the frontline, but for what? Right now the war is draining the Russian military of equipment and the Russian people of men. The economy is on wartime footing. The prospects of knowing that the best they can do is the 20% where they are fighting now cannot be appealing. Somewhere along the line it will sink in that it is time to go home. And who knows what ramifications that will have inside the Russian Empire when it faces the fact that it has reached its limit. As along as Putin has the illusion of victory, he will persevere. Biden Plan B would take away that illusion as sure as a clanking prison cell would that his American asset is not returning to power.

So far there is no sign of an American Plan B. There is no sign that any thinking outside the box is occurring. All there is publicly, is same-o-same-o or more of the same. No imagination. No creativity. Nothing original. Nothing different. By contrast Putin has a plan. He can wait until after the 2024 American presidential elections. He has a plan at least until then.

To Win in Ukraine, Think Outside the Box

April 12, 2023
by Peter Feinman
Bomb them back into the Stone Age (Courtesy CNN)

To win the war in Ukraine, the United States needs to think outside the box. Whether or not it can remains to be seen.

At this point, the war is not front page news. The daily battles seem like more of the same and not anything new. Maybe if the Russian Air Force entered the fray that would be a game changer.

In public, we hear that Russia has sustained massive casualties. The number mentioned is over 200,000 dead and/or wounded. That is the same number we have hearing for weeks if not months. It calls into question that validity of the number.

In public, we hear that Russia is running low on artillery shells. Similarly that is a claim that has been made for weeks in not months. There always seem to be more.

One shocking image that has surface comes from space. It shows the map of Ukraine and the lights that are being generated. The photo of a nearly black country then is compared to a map of Ukraine prior to the artillery bombardment. The difference in palpable. These images attest the success of the Russian artillery barrage targeting infrastructure even without the Air Force joining the battle. If one were to judge the present status of the war based on these images, one would conclude that Russia is winning. If one were to judge the status of the war based on the facts on the ground, one would conclude that Russia is winning. Ukraine looks like Germany after the Allied bombing or Georgia after Sherman marched through it.

ARSENAL OF DEMOCRACY

During World War II, the United States became known as the arsenal of democracy. The nickname refers to the unleashing of American industrial might on behalf of the Allied cause. America’s multiple civilian factories were transitioned into producing the arms and armaments necessary to support the cause. Cars could become tanks. Civilian planes could become war planes. The very power the Japanese feared could be unleashed was, in fact unleashed.

Recently we have been exposed to the double fallacy of transferring the lessons of the past to today. First, there was a big to-do about whether or not to supply Ukraine with the tanks it needed. When the European nations advocating a more robust and immediate response to Ukraine’s plea, their own arsenals were found wanting. These countries had very few tanks to begin with and those they had often were is disrepair.

For that matter, NATO’s military production has been allowed to whither in country after country … especially if they did not border Russia. No one needed Donald Trump to decimate NATO as a fighting force, NATO had done it to itself. No matter how willing countries were to come to the military aid of Ukraine, they simply were unable to do so. They did not have the infrastructure necessary to manufacture the equipment needed and what they did have in stock often was not working.

Unfortunately, some of these shortcomings extended to the United States. Much of American manufacturing has been outsourced to China. Furthermore, technology changes since World War II mean it is not so easy to convert an automobile production line to a modern tank. Gearing up to produce war planes – in the event it comes to that – takes time. In fact up and down the line for the military equipment needed, expanding production to meet Ukrainian needs requires years.

Times have changed. Once upon a time, the Unites States military was supposed to be combat ready to fight two and one-half wars. We are not even remotely capable so doing. True the military budget is huge but is it adequate to fight one and one-half wars where the one is China for when it invades Taiwan?  The answer clearly is “No.” We talk about the United States as a global power and have aircraft carriers around the world with many bases (including now back in the Philippines) but that does not translate into being ready for combat.

No one expected a land war in Europe such as the one we are fighting now. Perhaps after this war is over, it will be possible to indulge in such fantasies … unless, of course, even with Ukrainian victory this is only round one until Russia gears up again for round two (unlikely).

Still our ability to successfully predict the type of war to be fought has not been so good. We did not predict an Afghan type war. Nor were we prepared for a Ukrainian type war. This means as we strategize for future military encounters even with such likely opponents as China and Iran, we must recognize that they will be different from the current war.

OUTSIDE THE BOX

At this point everyone is expecting more of the same. The documents recently disclosed are not a recipe for success. They are a commitment to stay the course. The hope is that if Putin is living in the real world and not his isolated bubble, he will realize that he cannot win in Ukraine and eventually call of the war. He will have to content himself with a decimated foe even if it still exists as a country. The darken sky tells the story.

Sad to say, what the United States should do hasn’t changed since last year. Here are excerpts from that blog of thinking outside the box.

Cranes for Ukraine: Build It Back Better

March 28, 2022

The time then is now for the United States to take the initiative.

In my last post (Putin Isn’t the Only Loser: Trump and the Woke Are Too), I mentioned Herbert Hoover and the Marshall Plan as two examples of the United States helping to build Europe back better. Now it is time to start planning to do the same in Ukraine.

We know the areas which have been devastated by Russian artillery. We know that there are mountains of rubble that need to be disposed of in some way. We know that there are buildings still partially standing in a dilapidated state that will have to be demolished adding to the rubble.

We have the expertise to conduct a giant 9/11 removal project. Now instead of it being two buildings, it will be cities as it was in Europe after World War II.

President Joe Biden should immediately call for the creation of a team of nations and construction companies to begin the planning for the removal of the Russian rubble. The planning for this international effort should begin now and it should be public.

President Joe Biden should then call for the creation of a team of nations, city planners, and construction companies to begin the planning for the rebuilding of the cities destroyed by Russian artillery. Working with the Ukrainians who lived in and governed these cities, city planners, architects, and engineers should begin planning for the new cities to be built once the Russian rubble is removed.

The time to start planning for the cleaning up of the Ukrainian cities and their rebuilding is now. We should not wait until the last minute. We should not wait until Putin allows us to do so. We should show the world now that we are planning now for the future of the country. We should show the refugees that they will have a country to which to return. We should show Russia that the Ukraine will not be destroyed.

The planning for the assembling of the “Cranes for Ukraine” convoys should start now. We saw how long it took for Putin to assemble his equipment for destruction. It will take time to assemble the equipment for construction.

Start now.

Sadly, a year from now, there is a good chance I will be able to write a third version of this blog.

Thomas and Friends to the Rescue

What Do Putin and Trump Have to Look Forward to?

November 13, 2022
by Peter Feinman

What do alpha male Putin and alpha male wannabee Trump have to look forward to? The two losers are forever linked by the dual frontpage headlines above the fold on the print edition of the New York Times, November 10, 2022. Across the top, headline read “those who passed the litmus test to become approved Trumpican candidates lost in key states.” Just below, the headline read “In another major retreat in the special military operation, Putin withdrew his forces from the city he had just proclaimed annexed by Russia forever.”

At this point, the two men have an aura of loser surrounding them. What do they have look forward to in Ukraine or in the American political arena?

PUTIN

How many strategic retreats in a special military operation can one have before admitting defeat?

Putin failed in the effort to capture the capital.

Putin was pushed backed in the northeast.

Putin was pushed back across the river at Kherson.

Putin has had one partial mobilization.

Putin has scraped the bottom of the barrel to find bodies to throw into the battle.

Putin searched the globe for additional bodies so desperate is he for cannon fodder.

It is getting to the point where he could not defend Russia from an invasion by the Baltic States!

We are used to Russia absorbing the invasions from the west by Napoleon and Hitler before turning the tables. Now it is the Russian military forces which have reached their limit and have begun pulling back. Do you think there is going to be a second land offensive into Ukraine by Russia? Do you think the withdrawal of forces from Kherson is the last Russian withdrawal? Quite the opposite. It will be Ukrainians who will be pressing their momentum this winter.

More and more Russian families want to know what has happened to their loved ones. The task of hiding the truth will become more and more challenging.

The hope that European unity will collapse over the winter seems like wishful thinking. The American arms pipeline to Ukraine will continue. At some point the combination of sanctions and the spending on the war will take a toll on the lives on the Russian people.

Could what is happening in Iran also happen in Russia?

How many shoulders does Putin have to look over?

The course of events in Russia does not loom well for Putin because the course of events in Ukraine do not either. Since the Kremlin is far from transparent, it is hard to say what will happen. Putin could keep renewing his term in office until 2036 when he will be 86, but somehow it is hard to imagine him lasting that long. Putin’s “savvy” move to fulfill a Peter the Great destiny may turn out to be the dumbest thing he ever did. The moment of truth will occur when Putin no longer can maintain the illusion that he is Peter the Great, that he is restoring, that he is winning in Ukraine. When that moment comes, he my go ballistic.

What will happen then? He cannot just push a lever, turn a key, or press a button. Other people will have to carry out his orders. Will they?

Once before, an American President had to show the skill, foresight, and patience to let the Iron Curtain fall and the Soviet Union collapse in what Putin regards as the “biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” Now another American President may have to do the same for the collapse of Putin.

TRUMP

Even as everyone in America is caught up in the election on 2022, life still goes go in the legal arena for the Loser. In one case, a judge ruled that Trump lawyers had to pay fines and receive sanctions for a frivolous lawsuit about a vast conspiracy of perceived enemies arrayed against him. Although I am not a lawyer and have not read the ruling, I get the impression that the judge had had it with the complete and total nonsense of Trump lawyers abusing the legal system for the political agenda of an immature child with the emotional maturity of a three-year old.

The case delivered a doubled message:

1. MAGA means “Make Attorneys Get Attorneys” meaning lawyers accept Donald Trump as a client at their own financial and legal peril.

2. Pay attention to the little case that don’t get much attention.  For example in case against the Trump Organization involving former Chief Financial Officer Allen Weisselberg, we already have seen the Trump lawyers show their willingness to throw him under the bus – it was all Weisselberg. Now Controller Jeffrey McConney has testified about the mechanics behind the financial skullduggery behind the payments to avoid taxes. One wonders exactly who is going to defend the actions of the Trump Organization. One wonders if other people are catching on that no matter how loyal they have been to him, he will not be loyal to them as Michael Cohen has been saying for years.

The Georgia Senate runoff scheduled for December 6 means any indictments either by the DOJ or in Georgia or both will be pushed back until after that time so as not to interfere with vote. Assuming the Democrats lose control of the House by no matter how small a margin, the House Select committee will be issuing its report shortly thereafter as well. In other words, it will not be “Happy Holidays” for the Loser.

It’s hard to see what Trump can do to escape the taint of being a loser. We know that stigma was something he has strove to avoid at all costs practically since childhood. We know that he made he made his loss the 2020 the litmus test for receiving his blessing in 2022. We now know that even though he is name was not on ballot in 2020, he is the President who is being blamed for being the loser while Joe Biden is taking victory laps.

On November 15, he will try to assert his power in the Republican Party. He will be meaner. He will be more insulting. He will be nastier. He will dare any wannabee from running against him. He will demand fealty. He will make the lives of McCarthy and O’Connell a living hell. The new litmus test will be supporting his candidacy in 2024 right now or feel his wrath.

While the Freedom Caucus has been garnering all the attention, what about the Real Republican Caucus. There were ten who voted for impeachment in the current Congress. How many will there be in the new Congress? Republicans who have had enough and are ready to move on? We may know soon from some votes.

Did anyone think he would appear before the House Select Committee on November 14? As expected, he is trying to run out the clock so his red wave can rescue him and on his income taxes. But there is no red wave. What happens if despite his ranting and raving, the House Select Committee recommends the House holds him in contempt for not compliance?

They are not afraid of the Loser anymore

At times, it is starting to look like “Murder on the Orient Express.” Everyone is coming out of the woodwork to castigate Trumpty Dumpty’s failure.

He is not used to being the ridiculed figure of failure from his own supporters. He lacks the maturity to deal with a situation where Republicans are eager to make fun of him and to talk about moving on.

Like Putin, Trump will have a moment when goes ballistic. However when that moment comes it means he will implode and become even more deranged. Even as we prepare for his announcement of his candidacy for 2024, he just may be a loser spouting hot air.

 

Putin’s Big Lie versus Trump’s Big Lie

October 7, 2022
by Peter Feinman
Is it time to hide under your school desks? (Georgetown University)

We stand at Armageddon: so said Teddy Roosevelt over a century ago. Today Armageddon is back in the news. It is explicitly in news due to the comments of the current President of the United States hearkening back to the Cuban Missile Crisis. But there is another Armageddon pending the return of “Orange Jesus” to the American presidency when heads are going to roll in fulfillment of the QAnon prophecy.

THE RUSSIAN HOWARD BAKER MOMENT

In Russia, Putin’s Big Lie is not faring too well. As noted in my previous blog, Russians Reject Putin’s Big Lie?, even with Russian Foxhub at his disposal, the dictator is less and less able to convince people of the validity of his Big Lie. This failure extends beyond the Russian people to the leaders of countries who are supposed to be his friends and allies.

The question to be raised is one Americans have heard before:

How do you ask a man to be the last man to die in Vietnam? How do you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?

Russia is approaching this point. No one may say these precise words in a public setting even substituting “Ukraine” for “Vietnam,” but the sentiment is one more and more Russian people are expressing openly.

For now, there is still some semblance of order within the country. Despite all the Russians who have fled, there are still Russian males being rounded up to fight in the unsuccessful war in Ukraine. Possibly due to sheer numbers they may make a difference. Possibly also these poorly-trained, poorly-armed soldiers with low morale joining others in a similar situation will be more cannon fodder for the advancing Ukranians. Hard as it is to believe, it seems possible on any given day to wake up in the United States and learn that part of the Russian army has simply collapsed, surrendered, or retreated.

The moment of truth for Putin, Russia, and the world when Putin realizes his Hail Mary failed. At that point, will he go ballistic?

Here is when the Russian Howard Baker moment will occur. The Russians know that Putin’s Big Lie is exactly that – it is Putin’s Big Lie, not Russia’s Big Lie. To confront Putin’s Big Lie is to confront one individual. To challenge Putin at that moment when he may go ballistic is the act of a Russian patriot and not a Russian traitor. As the protests against the war mount in the weeks and months to come, the protests will be directed against one individual and not against Mother Russia.

The Russians who love their country will be able to join together if Putin is ready to go ballistic to salvage his Big Lie. So while it is true based on Putin’s rhetoric that we stand at Armageddon,  it is to defend Putin’s Big Lie. The gamble is that if he decides to push the button, there will be mutiny in Kremlin and it will not happen. That does mean Russia will turn into a democracy, but it does mean less adversarial and cooler heads devoid of a Peter the Great complex will rise to fore. At that moment, it will be essential for the American President to extend the hand of friendship so the Russian collapse in Ukraine will be as peaceful as the collapse of the Iron Curtain was.

TRUMP’S BIG LIE

Trump’s Big Lie will prove more enduring than Putin’s Big Lie. Ironically, in a country with freedom of the press, Trump’s Big Lie wields more power with each passing day than Putin’s Big Lie does in Russia.

For 45, it has been déjà vu 2016 all over again. He endorsed a GOP candidate for governor, Geoff Diehl in Massachusetts, by telling a crowd that Diehl will “rule your state with an iron fist, and he’ll do what has to be done.” In Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, he addressed a rally supposedly in support of Republican candidates in the state: Mehmet Oz for the Senate; the January 6 apologist Doug Mastriano for governor. This one was different: so extreme, so strident, and so ugly—and so obviously provoked by an earlier Biden’s speech on fascists that this was what led local news coverage: “Donald Trump Blasts Philadelphia, President Biden During Rally for Doug Mastriano, Dr. Oz in Wilkes-Barre.”

These venues are his preferred ones, the professional political wrestling arenas. There he can unleash his barely contained inner id to the thunderous applause of his followers. In this venue, he can give full cry to what social media limits him to – plus he is better at speaking than writing.

At this point, he is operating in two arenas, one legal and one political. In the legal arenas (plural), things are not going so well. He may well be the first person in American jurisprudence to be involved with four courts on three levels plus a Special Master in a single case. His lawyers are in chaos. Some of them know they will be indicted. He has now thrown a Hail Mary to Supreme Court Justice Thomas just after praising his wife for her loyalism in her testimony to the House Select Committee. What are the odds that Thomas will recuse himself?

In the political arena, all these legal maneuverings all irrelevant when it comes to denting the loyalty by Trumpicans. They are not following the intricacies of Mar-a-Lagogate. They are standing by their man nationally just as they are in the state of Georgia.

As the crowds in his political arena become uglier and meaner with their QAnon hatred, so will his rhetoric about civil war and the need to destroy the people who are destroying America. It will only get worse after the 2022 elections a scant month away. As Steve Bannon might say, “Strap in and buckle up.” The civil war has already started and there is no turning back.

We’re not Russia. In Russia, the Big Lie is due to Putin alone. By contrast, in the United States, Trump’s Big Lie will survive him. We can see how many candidates in 2022 embrace Trump’s Big Lie. We can see how hard Trumpicans are working at the state and federal level to ensure that never again will Satan’s minions, i.e., Democrats, be allowed to take power in the United States.

Consider the agenda of the House of Representatives if the Trumpicans take control:

Impeach Joe Biden
Relitigate the 2020 Presidential election
Investigate the House Select Committee
Investigate the FBI for its Nazi-Gestapo actions just as Putin did with his invasion of Ukraine
Investigate Hunter Biden (unless the DOJ already has indicted him)
Impeach Joe Biden again.

These agenda items are from a people at war. There has been a lot of talk about whether or not there will be another civil war. There has been a scrutiny of search engines and websites for the language used. There is a failure to understand that we are in the midst of a civil war already, just not as violent yet as the ones in the American Revolution or the Civil War. This one is being fought locally. It is being fought in the school board elections. It is being fought in the superintendent hiring. It is being fought in the poll workers. It is being fought in various state elections to control the election infrastructure. It is being fought through the bused immigrants. The battleground states really are battle ground states for the control of the country.

Trump’s Big Lie has found a home. It is now part of the very fabric of tens of millions of people. They already were at war with the Politically-Corrected People (PCP). They are at war with the Woke. This is why the battles being fought in the legal arena ultimately are of no concern. Regardless of what happens to Trump the individual, the war will continue under the banner of Trump the symbol. The Russians can abandon Putin’s Big Lie but Trumpicans cannot abandon Trump’s Big Lie. They need it to be true.

Russians Reject Putin’s Big Lie

October 3, 2022
by Peter Feinman
Russian "Field of Dreams"

 

 

What will Putin do? I ask that question as someone with access to no secret sources, no classified government materials, and no friends in the know. I ask it as someone who reads articles and watches news and talk shows. We are witnessing a battle between the real world and the mind of someone with a Peter the Great complex who knows the price for attempting to impose such greatness and failing. At some point eventually, the real world wins. The Soviet Union was not the wave of the future.

WHERE ARE WE TODAY?

Back in February when this special military operation began, I am not sure how many people thought we would be where we are today. The invasion was hardly a secret although it still seemed to have taken some people by surprise. There seem to be people who believed that it was a bluff of some kind.

In the initial Russian run up and invasion of Ukraine, the consensus was that the war would be a short one. The Russian forces were massive, a word one heard frequently. The Russian forces also were state-of-the-art, a true 21st-century military machine what would steamroller over the smaller and less well-armed Ukraine. Russia had military experiences as well. Perhaps Putin’s asset, the former President of the United States said it best.

“I went in yesterday and there was a television screen, and I said, ‘This is genius.’ Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine — of Ukraine — Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that’s wonderful,” Trump said in a radio interview with “The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show.” “He used the word ‘independent’ and ‘we’re gonna go out and we’re gonna go in and we’re gonna help keep peace.’ You gotta say that’s pretty savvy.”

As we all know, Russia’s initial onslaught was both brutal and unsuccessful. The Russian proclamations of quick victory had to be filed back in the drawer. Instead, the Ukrainians were more like the Russians valiantly fighting the Nazis from capturing the country. Those early weeks of the war have become Ukraine’s finest hour so far.

Zelensky then became a media darling. Ukraine was front page news and he was front page news. He spoke via giant screens to the people of Europe. They gathered together to hear him just as they had when Matt Damon was successfully rescued from Mars to the cheers of millions. He was David defeating Goliath. The Russians had failed in their efforts to seize the capital. Perhaps soon Ukrainians would even push the Russians out of their country. Those were heady days indeed.

The moment did not last long. Ukraine stopped being the lead story. It was not even mentioned in daily news shows, talked about, or printed about in the daily newspapers. The battle had switched to the “east.” It has become a slugfest. There were no stirring defeats. There were no stirring victories. It just continued day after day, more of the same, with no light at the end of the tunnel, a forever genocidal war.

Then the tide change. Suddenly Ukraine was on the offensive. Ukraine was regaining territory. The Russian army seemed on the verge of collapse. What would Putin do?

Now we now know the answer: partial mobilization. Will it work?

SCORECARD

Let’s examine some of the changes which have occurred and the hoped-for changes which have not.

1. NATO is more unified than it has been in decades. How long that will last remains unknown but so far one result of Putin’s war is a revitalized NATO that takes very seriously the Russian threat. This can’t be what Putin wanted.

2. NATO has expanded. Finland and Sweden are in the process of joining NATO. Even beforehand, their militaries are working with NATO as if they were members. This can’t be what Putin wanted.

3. World food and energy prices are in turmoil leading to disruptions in many places. For Putin this unexpected collateral damage has been weaponized into an attack on the West. It will not help him win in Ukraine but it will inflict pain on others. Putin does not care.

4. The oligarchs have had no effect on Putin’s behavior. The seizure of yachts has made for many dramatic photo-ops but they are immaterial.

5. Economic sanctions have not worked … yet. Remember how being cut off from SWIFT was going to be a devastating blow! So far the economy has shrunk but less than it did with Covid. The high energy prices and willing customers in China and India have helped keep the coffers full … so far. Ever more Russian people have been placed under sanctions. This is a little like watching paint dry or grass grow. If you are patient and can hold firm, they can have a major effect on the Russian people. Putin may not care how much the Russian people suffer for the greater cause of his being Peter the Great, but combined with other events, they could prove troublesome to him. At some point sanctions may become the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

6. The army has underperformed and the situation is getting worse not better. Even Russian pro-war hawks have become speaking out on social media calling for heads to roll. The facts on the ground ultimately may be the biggest game changer of all.

At this point Putin seemingly has nothing good to which to look to forward, so he threw a Hail Mary.

PUTIN’S HAIL MARY

Like “special military operation,” “partial mobilization” is a code term. The former is for an invasion and the latter is a Hail Mary.

Putin already had succeeded in generating one rush to emigrate with the start of the special military operation. Now with the partial mobilization he has sparked another. The first one was mainly Western-oriented people of all genders and ages who said “enough is enough.” These are the people who were in the forefront of the efforts to westernize Russia and promote democracy. The departure of the best-educated people enabled Putin to say “good riddance” to these enemies of the state regardless of the loss to the future economy of Russia.

With the second group fleeing the country, the situation is different. They are young men, Russian and non-ethnic, perhaps not as well educated as the first group, perhaps more loyal to Putin before, who are now leaving.

Here we see the failure of Russian Foxhub. Officially the special military operation is succeeding perfectly according to plan. One might think the young men would be eager to participate in this glorious undertaking for the greater good of Mother Russia. Yet for some reason, they think going to the battlefront in Ukraine means going to die. They see the draft not as a call to arms but as a death sentence.

How could they think that? The fleeing following the partial mobilization decree tells us that Russian Foxhub was telling them the Big Lie that no longer works. The Russian Big Lie of victory was tolerated as long as it did not affect the average individual. In other words, the Russian people knew Russian Foxhub was spinning the Big Lie. Once Putin called for a partial mobilization, they knew the Big Lie was a Big Lie and they knew who was responsible for it. They were being asked to sacrifice themselves for Putin’s Big Lie. They are not being asked to fight for Russia, they are being asked to fight for Putin. How many troops does Putin need at home round up the people needed for the partial mobilization in support of the Big Lie?

And now he will be arming those recruits or at least trying to. He will be arming 300,000 men who know that Putin is the problem. There already are tens of thousands of men in the Ukraine who know the war is the Big Lie and Putin is the problem. So while everyone in the West is concerned about whether Putin will use nuclear weapons, we should also be looking to the facts on the ground. Winter is coming for the exposed troops in the Ukraine. Winter is coming for new recruits however many are rounded up. The West will do a better job arming and supplying Ukrainians this winter than Russians will do their own armed forces. The winter that defeated Napoleon and Hitler is more likely to defeat Putin too.

What will Putin do when the Big Lie no longer works and the facts on the ground can no longer be denied even by him? That is when he has to start looking over his shoulder and watching his back if he is not already doing that.

THE WAR WILL END WHEN THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE ARE NO LONGER WILLING TO ACCEPT PUTIN’S BIG LIE.

THE WAR WILL END WHEN THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE ARE WILLING TO HOLD PUTIN ACCOUNTABLE FOR SPREADING THE BIG LIE.

May 9: V-U Day or V-R Day?

April 25, 2022
by Peter Feinman
V-E Day, Times Square (AP Photo/Tom Fitzsimmons)

More and more the current war in the Ukraine resembles World War II. It has bombed out cities, tanks galore, genocide and even a budding world alliance against the perpetrator of the war. It also will soon have its equivalent of V-E Day and V-J Day. The United States celebrated Victory in Europe Day on May 8, 1945. The USSR celebrated on May 9, 1945, and that day continues with the Russian nation that replaced it.

AMERICAN WORLD WAR II HOLIDAY

The United States does not really have a World War II holiday. The anniversaries of famous war events like the Day of Infamy, D-Day, V-E Day, and V-J occur annually without much recognition. Memorial Day often contains a World War II component. But in general terms the memory of the so-called “Last Good War” by the greatest generation is fading from the national consciousness even faster than the generation that fought it dies.

The same cannot be said for said for the Civil War aka the War of Northern Aggression. That war lives on. We all saw the Confederate flag waving in the Capitol during the attempted coup on January 6, 2021. It is much more alive than World War II. One major difference between the two wars is that one was fought here and the other was fought over there. It is with the Russian invasion of Ukraine that we can glimpse some of the damage which General Sherman wreaked on Georgia. When we think about the Ukrainians have reacted to Russians we can start to understand the lasting hatred for the Yankee invaders and their modern elitist woke descendants evoke in the Confederates.

RUSSIAN WORLD WAR HOLIDAY   

By contrast, in Russia, the celebration of the victory over Nazi Germany is a big deal. The war was fought on Russian land and not just over there. Russian cities paid a steep price. And the millions dead due to Stalin blur with the millions dead due to Hitler. So when Putin declares a war against Nazis in Ukraine, it resonates far more with the Russian people than it does when the term is used on Foxhub, in school board meetings, and over masks and vaccinations. We have trivialized and diluted the meaning of the term “Nazi” in a way that would be unacceptable in Russia. Putin is wrong about Nazis in Ukraine but he is right about the power of the term to the Russian people.

When the war began, Putin was ready to proclaim victory even beforehand. An article by the propaganda publication RIA Novosti was to be published after the pending occupation of Ukraine. By mistake, it was published prematurely before being removed from the website. It reveals the big plans the Peter-the-Great admirer had for his special military operation. The article describes Putin’s imperial plans for the total Russification of Ukraine and Belarus and change of the world order.

A new world is being born before our eyes. Russia’s military operation in Ukraine has ushered in a new era – in three dimensions at once. And of course, in the fourth, internal Russian. Here begins a new period both in ideology and in the very model of our socio-economic system – but this is worth talking about separately a little later.

Russia is restoring its unity; the tragedy of 1991, this terrible catastrophe in our history, its unnatural dislocation, has been overcome.

The victory press release continues in this vein. Putin has risen to the occasion to right the wrongs of history and to launch a new world order. Say what you want about the validity of the claims. It reveals a person who is thinking big. To convince him that his dreams will never be fulfilled and that instead he is a loser will not be easy. Look how hard it has been to convince the American Presidential loser that he is a loser!

WHO IS WINNING THE WAR?

Is Putin winning his war to fulfill an historic destiny? Based on American press coverage, the answer is “No!” The Russian army routinely is described as inept, incompetent, and damaged. A guessing game has ensued as to how many tens of thousands Russian soldiers are dead, wounded, or captured thereby undermining the efficiency of its “massive” forces. The Ukrainian fighters are always valiant. Shades of World War II, the American arsenal has been ramped up and is providing ever more powerful weaponry to confront the forces of evil. The pride of the Russian fleet sank. The Ukrainian capital was not captured. The battle has shifted eastward to a smaller setting.

Nonetheless, there are continued reports that Putin thinks he is winning. Not the Russian people who are restricted in the information they have access to and, of course, think Russia is winning but the leader himself. Is he being fed false information by his subordinates who are afraid to tell him the truth? Is he living in an alternate reality? What then?

Let’s keep in mind some other considerations.

The Russian economy has not tanked yet despite the most massive sanctions ever.

Much of the world supports Russia – China, India, huge portions of Africa and elsewhere. We cannot afford to take our eye off the Pacific while China uses the opportunity of the focus on Europe to insert itself into the Solomon Islands and the South Pacific.

Europe is not united against Russia. While Sweden and Finland consider joining NATO contrary to Putin’s wishes, Hungary supports him. France did not abandon its position in the war, but the election just concluded shows what could happen especially if the war drags on.

The United States is not united either. So far there is Congressional approval for the war effort. Still a significant part of the Trumpican party in the House of Representatives refused to condemn Putin. The presumptive nominee of the Trumpican party for the presidency in 2024 thinks Putin is a savvy genius AND WILL NEVER UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES OPPOSE HIM. If the wars drags on and Americans tire of more pictures of massacred Ukrainians, destroyed cities, and refugees and if Western arms are not sufficient to stem the Russian tide and Western bodies and aircraft are needed, what will happen then? Will Americans still support the Ukraine then? I don’t know the answer but it is understandable for Putin to think that if he can hold on, he can eventually prevail in some form.

MAY 9

That brings us to May 9. Putin will have to declare victory in some manner over Nazis in the present at the time when Russia celebrates it victory over Nazis in the past. In some ways we are approaching the most critical time of the war. May 9 could become Putin’s January 6 – the day when he failed to seize even the eastern Ukraine just as his American asset failed in his attempt to seize the Capitol. We need to deliver our own message on May 9 (or better May 8 when we celebrate V-E Day) that Russia will never succeed in conquering Ukraine and is failing everywhere. It is time for American stop being reactive and to take the initiative.

Will Only Taiwan Be Allowed to Attack Chinese Supply Depots if Invaded?

April 13, 2022
by Peter Feinman
To Boldly Go Where No American Official Has Gone Before (https://www.bbc.com/news)

There are many lessons to be learned from the current invasion of the Ukraine by Russia. Like the investigation of January 6, the story is still unfolding and the outcome cannot yet be known. Still there are some observations worth considering for where we are in the world at present and what may happen.

Lesson 1: Only Russia and China Can/Will Invade countries

When it comes to traditional wars between counties and nation-states, in the world as it exists today, only two countries are likely to invade another country – Russia and China. Yes they are two big nuclear-armed countries but the prospects for actual invasions is limited to a few specific targets. (India/Pakistan?)

For Russia, it already is in the midst of an invasion of Ukraine. The war is not going well and could even get worse. It has stalked a huge portion of its military resources on the now comparatively small goal of seizing a portion of neighbor. Given the prospects that even more of its once vaunted military force could be destroyed, the chances of any additional invasions such as to the Baltics or Poland seem slim. In the end, this may be the last gasp of a Russian military threat. In fact, its own continued existence as a Putin-dictatorship may be jeopardized.

For China, its one and only target for invasion in Taiwan. Certainly it will throw its weight around in the South China Sea, but that does not mean it has any intentions of invading any country in the Pacific yet alone Japan or Australia. Instead its preferred path to power is through economic domination and bullying the way it does over the NBA, Hollywood, and the Olympics. Like Russia with Ukraine, China considers Taiwan to be part of its country so it remains a target for invasion.

Lesson 2: Are only invaded Nations allowed to strike the invader?

The present war in the Ukraine is being fought under the rules that only it can directly strike the invading the nation on its own grounds. This is due to Russia having nuclear weapons. Otherwise the 40-mile and 8-mile convoys would be decimated and the supply depots in Russia would have exploded by now.

On the other hand, Russia is free to interfere with American elections as it did especially in 2016.

The United States and its allies are free to accept the invitation from the Ukraine to send troops to that country and to begin planning for the rebuilding of the country. As previously stated, there are vast areas in the country where there are no Russian present (Cranes for Ukraine: Build It Back Better). What are we waiting for? There is a huge amount of rebuilding which needs to be in the capital and elsewhere. What are we waiting for? The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom visits that capital city and we do not even have an embassy there? What are we waiting for?

Russia is putting practically everything it has into this war and we are not. Why not?

If China decides to invade Taiwan, will only Taiwan be allowed to strike China? What precedents are we establishing now?

Lesson 3: The Wars within Nations Are Really International Wars

The wars that we are having and will continue to have technically are considered domestic wars because of the way Europeans have drawn the maps. Yugoslavia never was a country or nation-state except that others pretended it was. That kind of division or breakup into its constituent parts is the more typical type of war that is and will be likely to occur.

How come non-Arab Kurds were part of Iraq while Arab Kuwait was not?

How come Arab Sudanese who for centuries raided multiple black African tribes to the south and independent Darfur were combined into one country instead of being three right from the start?

Pakistan already divided once politically reflecting its geographic separation. Will it separate into its constituent part as well?

At present, there are multiple nations on paper in Africa and Asia that exist solely because European colonizers drew the borders that way. The lack of stability of these entities will be a sore point for years to come as they often are already. There is no mechanism at present to undo the artificiality of these false nations except by war among the different peoples forced to live in one political entity with other people with whom they little in common besides geographic proximity. Even without climate change, the situation is ripe for emigration and refugees as is happening anyway. At some point, the so-called United Nations will have to face the fact that many of its members are nations in name only and we are not united.

 

The world is changing rapidly while we still use the same old playbook.

COVID was and continues to be a global threat. Who knows what the next pandemic will be?

Climate change increases whether we choose to recognize it or not? Why do we think coping with refugees is the best way to deal with climate change?

More and more countries will be destabilized. We have and are seeing it in Central America and in parts of Africa and Asia. How much longer can we pretend the United Nations is an effective way to deal with this collapse?

Finally, what happens if the United States is both unwilling and unable to be the leader the world needs us to be?  Right now we are trapped between the Woke and the Trumpicans with a weak president.

The Woke assault on the country will only accelerate as we approach the 250th anniversary of its birth. They will continually undermine the very idea of America playing a leadership role in the world. For them it is an example of American Exceptionalism that is best abandoned. Tell that to the Ukrainians.

The Trumpicans have paid no price for their blatant attempt to seize power after an election they knew they had lost. They have conned tens of millions of Americans into believing their attempted coup was legitimate political discourse. They are poised to seize power in one house of the government in the next election. If Putin can hold out, he may no longer need to be concerned about American support for the Ukraine and instead become the savvy genius the American former president says he is.

This is a critical moment in world history and we are not ready for it. Even in his prime, Joe Biden was not a dynamic visionary leader even in his prime. Now that shortcoming matters. Big time.

Over There, Over There: The Yanks Are Coming

April 8, 2022
by Peter Feinman

Over there, over there
Send the word, send the word over there
That the Yanks are coming
The Yanks are coming
The drums rum tumming everywhere

So prepare, say a prayer
Send the word, send the word to beware
We’ll be over, we’re coming over
And we won’t come back till it’s over, over there

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCUzD5eBTNU

 

It’s time.

Legitimate Military Discourse: The Power of Russian Foxhub

April 7, 2022
by Peter Feinman
Tuckyo Rose Carlson at work

You can fool all the people some of the time
and some of the people all the time
and that’s enough

Russian Foxhub is more powerful than American Foxhub, but it may not be powerful enough to save Putin.

The American Foxhub shows there are limits to its power. The United States remains a free country. There are multiple sources of news. Indeed, people have the option of choosing from among a full range of possibilities reflecting a wide assortment of political views. At this point in time, it is unlikely that any news outlet and format is dominating enough to have a single message become the uniform message of the land.

Take the January 6 insurrection to overthrow the government and the rule of law. At the time, no one envisioned that tens of millions of people would come to regard it as legitimate political discourse. Now January 6 is an expression of patriotic Americans exercising their Constitutional right to prevent an election from being stolen by taking the law into their own hands. The point for the Russian-Ukrainian war is that even with multiple media outlets tens of millions Americans believe and will continue to believe to their dying day that the con of the stolen election is true.

This reality bodes ill for the hope that the Russian people will force Putin to face the truth.

THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE AND THE WAR

By now people in the West are much more aware of the power of the Russian Foxhub than at the onset of the war. The incident of a single person with a handwritten sign denouncing the Putin lie garners a great deal of attention. There must be others who share that perspective. They must not have had the opportunity to express themselves or they are afraid to do so given that it is illegal.

It would seem that the people who are most aware of the Putin lie are the ones who have left the country. By contrast, the polls would suggest that Putin’s popularity has increased as the war continues. The anti-Russian actions perpetrated by the West have only verified the claim that America is behind the Nazis in the Ukraine and intends to establish an anti-Russian base there. In other words, for the Russians this is World War II all over again. The anti-American narrative provides an opportunity for Russians to relive the Russian greatness from the Great Patriotic War against the Nazis. It is questionable whether Russian relatives in the Ukraine, the Russian soldiers who do not return, and the wounded Russian soldiers who do return are likely to change sufficient number of minds to end the war. So far, the Russian people are prepared to rise to the occasion and stand firm against America and the Nazis.

ENDING THE WAR

Unfortunately, this does not bode well for ending the war. The world may be outraged by the horrific sight of the slain Ukrainians by the Russians, but the Russian know better. They know that Russians did not commit these atrocities. They are familiar with Fake News. They are familiar with Jewish George Soros. They know that there are no limits to what the Nazi Ukrainians would do. They know that good Russian boys would not do such things. And they know this because Russian Foxhub has a news monopoly and is delivering this message continually. China knows it too and the two countries reinforced their collective anti-American message.

There is the hope that with drones and satellites, the truth can pierce the new Iron Curtain.

There is the hope that the returning conscripts alive or in body bags will communicate the truth to the Russian people.

There is the hope that call for new conscripts will expose the lie that Putin’s special military operation is going according to plan.

However, in the meantime, Putin continues to set the rules of the engagement and we continue to let him do so. Therefore his war will end only when he has decided it should end.

AMERICAN ACTION AND INACTION

As a result we need to wake up and smell the coffee.

The oligarchs are not going to end the war.

The Russian people are not going to end the war.

The generals are not going to end the war.

The only way the fighting ends is the way it has ended in some parts of the country now – by the Ukrainian defeat of the Russian army. Such a victory seems less likely in the portions of the country that have been at war since 2014. Those areas may even include people who really do prefer Russian to Ukrainian rule. We won’t know until a plebiscite is held, not that we even have proposed one.

Consider the American example for illustrative purposes.

What would it take to get Trumpicans to stop believing in the big lie?

What would it take in a free society to convince true believers that they have been conned?

Donald Trump could tell the truth. That’s not possible.

His conspirators might tell the truth. That hardly seems likely. They don’t even have any reason to since there are no consequences for having helped organized the attempted takeover.

Now apply these lessons to Russia.

Putin could tell the truth. That’s not possible. He seems to be a permanent resident of his alternate reality.

His conspirators, the Russian generals, could tell the truth. That hardly seems likely. What reason do they have to do so? They are no more afraid of being tried as war criminals as Steve Bannon, Jim Jordan, John Eastman, et. al., are afraid of being tried for sedition.

The question to be asked is how long the Ukraine can hold out? Zelensky like the House Select Committee faces a deadline. If the Trumpicans seize control of the House of Representatives, its primary action will be to impeach Joe Biden using Hunter Biden to do so. The leader of the party already has signified what is important to him. The Trumpican votes in the House already are shifting to Putin’s favor. His fiercest supporters do not even want the United States to collect data on the Russian war crimes. By the time of the election, who knows how many will have fully embraced Putin’s legitimate military discourse.

Cranes for Ukraine: Build It Back Better

March 28, 2022
by Peter Feinman
Thomas and Friends to the Rescue

There is no light at the end of the tunnel yet. But there is a growing sense that there may be an end to the tunnel.

Russia is not going to conquer the entire country of Ukraine.

Russia is not going to occupy the entire country of Ukraine.

Russian soldiers are not even going to have been present throughout the entire country of Ukraine.

Russia is not willing to settle for half of half a loaf.

The time then is now for the United States to take the initiative.

In my last post (Putin Isn’t the Only Loser: Trump and the Woke Are Too), I mentioned Herbert Hoover and the Marshall Plan as two examples of the United States helping to build Europe back better. Now it is time to start planning to do the same in Ukraine.

We know the areas which have been devastated by Russian artillery. We know that there are mountains of rubble that need to be disposed of in some way. We know that there are buildings still partially standing in a dilapidated state that will have to be demolished adding to the rubble.

We have the expertise to conduct a giant 9/11 removal project. Now instead of it being two buildings, it will be cities as it was in Europe after World War II.

President Joe Biden should immediately call for the creation of a team of nations and construction companies to begin the planning for the removal of the Russian rubble. The planning for this international effort should begin now and it should be public. Certainly China should be expected to participate given its support for Russia in creating this rubble in the first place.

President Joe Biden should then call for the creation of a team of nations, city planners, and construction companies to begin the planning for the rebuilding of the cities destroyed by Russian artillery. Working with the Ukrainians who lived in and governed these cities, city planners, architects, and engineers should begin planning for the new cities to be built once the Russian rubble is removed.

What infrastructure will the rebuilt cities need?

What buildings can be rebuilt?

What new buildings are needed?

The time to start planning for the cleaning up of the Ukrainian cities and their rebuilding is now. We should not wait until the last minute. We should not wait until Putin allows us to do so. We should show the world now that we are planning now for the future of the country. We should show the refugees that they will have a country to which to return. We should show Russia that the Ukraine will not be destroyed.

There are physical dimensions to this process. To remove the Russian rubble will require construction equipment. It will take time to begin to identify the equipment required. Where is it now? How will it get to the Ukraine? Where will it be placed in the Ukraine?

The planning for the assembling of the “Cranes for Ukraine” convoys should start now. We saw how long it took for Putin to assemble his equipment for destruction. It will take time to assemble the equipment for construction.

Start now.

We should publicly announce that we are going to secure the areas where there are no Russian soldiers. NATO is not obligated to defend the Ukraine from aggression. But it is capable of accepting an invitation to put boots on the ground there. We should secure the areas of the Ukraine where the cranes for Ukraine convoys will be going.

Finally, we should announce to the Russian people that we have no intention of cancelling Russia. The country has three paths from which to choose.

1. The Putin “Peter the Great” go-it-alone divine mission approach
2. Increasingly subordinated to and dominated by China approach
3. Partnering with Europe and the United States approach.

What do I mean for Russia to partner with the West? What does it mean politically? What does in mean culturally? What does it mean economically? What does it mean in space, at the poles, in the oceans? We need to communicate with the Russian people by every means possible that there is a life to look forward in partnership with the West. Ultimately the Russian people are going to hear from their own sons, brothers, husbands, and fathers what they were doing in the Ukraine. They are going to learn how many have not returned. They will see how many of those who return will need lifelong care and treatment. These people are not our enemy. We need to start reaching out to them now.

Build back better does not only apply to the United States. It applies to the Ukraine and to a post-Putin Russia, too.