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If Mike Pence Were President, How Many More Americans Would Be Alive Today?: Over 80,000 and Counting

God’s Plan for Mike Pence (The Atlantic, Tim O'Brien)

If Mike Pence were President, how many more Americans would be alive today? I posed that question in my blog on April 27, 2020, entitled If Mike Pence Were President, How Many More Americans Would Be Alive Today? At that time, I did not have a specific figure. I wrote this about the counterfactual:

This time we have hard-based scientific evidence that the situation could have been different. We know that social distancing and lock-downs work. It is possible to examine the dates of when cities in the United States (like New York) and cities throughout the world commenced a lock down. The numbers aren’t hidden figures. They are visible in plain sight. We know that the earlier these actions were taken, the fewer deaths there would have been and would be.  The same applies to the states. It is possible to examine the numbers from the 50 states and observe how many lives would have been saved if a state had acted a day earlier, two days earlier, a week earlier, or two weeks earlier. We know with different national leadership fewer Americans would have died and the economy wouldn’t have collapsed as much.

In my concluding paragraph, I wrote:

It is really not so difficult to imagine a different scenario being played out. The evidence is right there before us. We have the numbers. We have the multiple examples from the different cities, states, and countries.

Now we have the answer. A team of researchers at Columbia University have crunched the numbers and created a model in a report entitled “Differential Effects of Intervention Timing on COVID-19 Spread in the United States” by Sen Pei Kandula and Jeffrey Shaman. I don’t expect it to be on the night stand of our elementary-school literate President or mentioned on Fox except perhaps in a derogatory way.

According to the study, the implementation of mitigation measures a week or two earlier would have made a substantial difference. They used the May 3 death toll of 65,307 as a control point for the number of deaths and March 15 as the date for the start of mitigation measures in the United States. The results for starting earlier are:

March 8 – a decrease in the number of deaths from 65, 307 to 29,410 deaths for a reduction of 35,987 or almost 55%

March 1 – a decrease in the number of deaths from 65,307 to 11,253 deaths for a reduction of 54,054 or almost 83%.

If we extrapolate the results to the pending 100,000 actual deaths, the results based on the March 1 date mean approximately 17,000 Americans would have died instead for a reduction of 83,000. Presumably these calculations would ripple through the timeline.

True, this is a model. But when asked by Jake Tapper on “State of the Union” about the impact of starting mitigation efforts in February Anthony Fauci replied:

“I mean, obviously, you could logically say that if you had a process that was ongoing and you started mitigation earlier, you could have saved lives…  Obviously, no one is going to deny that.”

My immediate reaction on hearing that comment was that obviously one person was going to deny that. After all he rated himself a “10” and wouldn’t change anything he has done. Fauci went on to say:

“We make a recommendation. Often, the recommendation is taken. Sometimes it’s not. But we — it is what it is. We are where we are right now.”

Would we be where we are right now if the Senate had voted to remove the impeached President and Mike Pence had become President in February instead? We will never know but I think it is safe to say he couldn’t have done any worse. We certainly never would have heard of hydroxychloroquine or have considered the feasibility of disinfectants. Time Magazine has reported a spike in accidental poisonings with household disinfectants (May 25, 2020). The number of prescriptions for hydroxychloroquine has nearly doubled now that it has the Presidential seal of approval. How long will it be before the lawsuits against the government start?

But, of course, Mike Pence did not become President? Could he have risen to the occasion and become a profile in courage against the buffoon President? Could Vice President Brown Nose have cast aside his subordinate identity and become as outspoken and dedicated to the truth as Fauci is? I asked that question in a blog on October 3, 2019, minus the Fauci reference, entitled Will Mike Pence Become a Profile in Courage?   The blog gave me the opportunity to compare Pence to a lookalike Star Trek figure Captain Merik in “Bread and Circuses” who did rise to the occasion.

Mike Pence Is No Captain Merik in Star Trek “Bread and Circuses” (William Smithers)

My conclusion then was that Pence would not:

What will Mike Pence do? He prides himself on his Christian values. Will he tell the truth? He prides himself on never dining alone with a woman who is not his wife. Will he tell the truth? He prides himself on his integrity. Will he tell the truth? He thinks he is part of God’s plan. Will he tell the truth?

No. Even his staff knows the truth does not register with him.

He will not rise to the occasion.

He will not be a profile in courage.

He never would have been picked for the position of Vice President if he was.

Thinking about this topic now caused me to reread The Atlantic article God’s Plan for Mike Pence by McKay Coppins (January/February 2018). Coppins began by describing Pence’s appearance at a political rally where he passed on the good wishes of the president.

He delivers this message with a slight chuckle that has a certain, almost subversive quality to it. Watch Pence give enough speeches, and you’ll notice that this often happens when he’s in front of a friendly crowd. He’ll be witnessing to evangelicals at a mega-church, or addressing conservative supporters at a rally, and when the moment comes for him to pass along the president’s well-wishes, the words are invariably accompanied by an amused little chuckle that prompts knowing laughter from the attendees. It’s almost as if, in that brief, barely perceptible moment, Pence is sending a message to those with ears to hear—that he recognizes the absurdity of his situation; that he knows just what sort of man he’s working for; that while things may look bad now, there is a grand purpose at work here, a plan that will manifest itself in due time. [bold added]

Did you notice that “slight chuckle” at any of the coronavirus press conferences? You probably noticed the grimaces and groans of Fauci and Birx as the simple-minded immature child wandered off into his imaginary world. As for Vice President Brown Nose, nary a facial expression of any kind except beaming adulation. At some point someone will document the timeline of when and why Pence sold his soul.

Coppins also reported Pence as saying:

“We’ve come to a pivotal moment in the life of this country….It’s a good time to pray for America.” His voice rising in righteous fervor, the vice president promises an opening of the heavens. “If His people who are called by His name will humble themselves and pray,” he proclaims, “He’ll hear from heaven, and He’ll heal this land!”

It is quite possible Pence actually believes what he is preaching. If McConnell has been the conduit for the appointment of conservative judges, then Pence has been the conduit for white evangelical Christians to the White House. He’s doing God’s work.

Pence is following God’s plan.  “If you’re Mike Pence, and you believe what he believes, you know God had a plan,” says Ralph Reed.

Coppins own analysis probably written at the end of 2017 is tinged with tragic irony given what has occurred.

Pence is a man who believes heaven and Earth have conspired to place him a heartbeat—or an impeachment vote—away from the presidency. At some crucial juncture in the not-too-distant future, that could make him a threat to Trump.

We had the impeachment. Did you notice any change in Pence? We are having the coronavirus crisis. Did you notice any change in Pence? Do you think the President ever worries about the Vice President telling the truth?

Coppins observed:

In Pence, Trump has found an obedient deputy whose willingness to suffer indignity and humiliation at the pleasure of the president appears boundless.

Still true over two years later.

Kellyanne Conway: “Mike Pence is someone whose faith allows him to subvert his ego to the greater good.”

Pence’s belief in “servant leadership” makes him a perfect patsy for a skilled con artist who knows how to manipulate people.

Evangelical Marc Short [White House director of legislative affairs] told me that in moments of need, Pence turns to a favorite passage in Jeremiah: “For I know the plans I have for you, declares the Lord, plans to prosper you and not to harm you, plans to give you hope and a future.”

Coppins noted this passage in conjunction with the Hollywood Access tape crisis. What exactly is that plan? Is it to go down with a sinking ship? Is it to stand idly by and watch tens of thousands of Americans die? When will that divine plan manifest itself? According to the evangelical Vice President in April:

“I truly do believe that if we all continue to do that kind of social distancing and other guidance broadly from federal and state officials, that we’re going to put this coronavirus in the past. I believe by early June we’re going to see our nation largely past this epidemic. I think honestly, if you look at the trends today, that I think by Memorial Day weekend we will have this coronavirus epidemic behind us.”

The day of reckoning is upon us. Memorial Day Weekend is here. Will Pence face the truth of his failed prophecy? Will he see the light at the end of tunnel? Will he rise to the occasion? Will he be the leader America needs? No. No. No. And no. Are you kidding me? He will claim his prophecy has been fulfilled just as his Lord and Savior, the Chosen One, Blessed Be his Name, will.

Impeachment: The Elitist Democrat Holy Grail

Illustration by Tim O'Brien, The Atlantic

Impeachment is the elitist Democrat Holy Grail. Through the forcible removal from political office of the one who never should have become president in the first place, cosmic order will be restored and all will be right with the world. Once the traumatic shock of the election night was over, the therapy for the post traumatic shock disorder among elitist Democrats was the belief in the power of the Constitution to heal America.

In the previous post on my winter solstice reflection on the coming light for the new year, I reviewed some extraordinarily wrong and misguided posts about the election results by Feinman, not me, Peter Feinman, but Ronald Feinman. He successfully predicted the wrong result in almost every single state “in play” for the 2016 presidential election and the less said about his Senate predictions the better. In this regard, he provides a glimpse into the disconnect with reality that prevented elitist Democrats from grasping the tactical brilliance of the immature child candidate in exploiting the fears and insecurities of many Americans to become the winner. Democrats simply were not capable of understanding why they weren’t up by 50% and that all those voters weren’t deplorable.

In this post, I examine how the other Feinman dealt with the new alternate reality where truth and lie have been reversed.

Why We Need a Crash Course in the 25th Amendment (January 22, 2017)

Even before the inauguration had occurred, Feinman already was calculating how the new president could be removed from office. He begins his post with:

Keith Olbermann has said it. Michael Moore has said it. Many intelligent, perceptive people across the political horizon have said it.

Olbermann and Moore! These are the figures of authority he chooses to cite as he launches his argument on how the 25th Amendment can save America? Hard to imagine two more inappropriate people to herald to rally the American people to the cause. And what is it that they and many other “intelligent, perceptive people” know?

…that he is a dire threat to America and its future. Clearly, Donald Trump is displaying evidence that he is mentally unbalanced and unhinged. Many psychologists have said he fits the textbook definition of a psychopath.

He is not even in office and hasn’t demonstrated any presidential behavior yet. He hasn’t even sent a hissy fit tweet about the crowd size yet! Besides, how much confidence should one have in psychologists who can’t even recognize a 7th grade smart-aleck/dumb-aleck in the body of an adult male when they see one?

Nonetheless, even before the inauguration has taken place, Feinman is outlining how the constitutionally authorized removal from office could occur.

He seems, clearly, to be living in a parallel universe, out of touch with reality, and obsessed with his own vanity. Fortunately, there is a constitutional remedy: The 25th Amendment to the Constitution, Section 4.

Feinman then details how Vice President Mike Pence and Speaker of the House Paul Ryan can lead this implementation. To be fair to that Feinman, no one anticipated that former Christian Mike Pence would sell his soul to the Donald as the savior of the universe and express his gratitude for being blessed to share the same space-time continuum with him.

Donald Trump Is On His Way to Second or Third Shortest Presidency in American History (February 15, 2017)

Hope springs eternal. Not even one month into the new administration and the person who was completely wrong about the election results, offers another prophecy: the briefest term in office ever. The catalyst for the removal from office will be …are you ready for this?… Mike Pence.

The fact that Vice President Mike Pence played a major role in pushing Flynn out is a sign that Pence is already asserting himself with Trump, and it seems clear that Pence will not stand by and allow our foreign policy to be damaged, or our national security to be endangered. The American people, ultimately, would not expect anything less.

After going on and on about how Mike Pence will save the day, Feinman does what every sane Christian apocalyptic knows not to do – be specific about when the End of Days will occur. Nothing good can be gained in such prophetic exactitude. None the less, Feinman persists.

In any case, it seems likely that Donald Trump will be leaving the Presidency at some point, likely between the 31 days of William Henry Harrison in 1841 (dying of pneumonia) and the 199 days of James A. Garfield in 1881 (dying of an assassin’s bullet after 79 days of terrible suffering and medical malpractice). At the most, it certainly seems likely, even if dragged out, that Trump will not last 16 months and 5 days, as occurred with Zachary Taylor in 1850 (dying of a digestive ailment). The Pence Presidency seems inevitable.

I confess that after this prophecy, I checked the calendar to see when the 199th day of reckoning would occur. Another way to check was with MSNBC The Eleventh Hour with Brian Williams. Night after night he intones the number of days into the presidency. He is not providing a countdown to its ending, he is marking a count up of our imprisonment as was done during the Iranian hostage under Jimmy Carter leading to his election loss in 1980. Our days of capture are now over 300 and the prophecy of early removal has been exposed as a pipe dream by the desperate. Besides, why exactly would elitist Democrats want Mike Pence as president? In effect, Pence functions as insurance to mitigate the chances of Democrats voting to impeach the president.

Feinman has no illusions about the Pence’s shortcomings from a Democratic perspective but what other option does he have? The Republican Party?

Can We Count on the GOP to End the Trump Presidency? (August 6, 2017)

And for many of the list of critics above, the accession of Vice President Mike Pence would be seen as a plus, although not by progressives and Democrats. But the instability and uncertainty associated with Donald Trump is seen as likely to end under a Pence Presidency, even though it would be the most conservative Presidency since Calvin Coolidge, in many ways, to the right of Coolidge or Ronald Reagan, the other conservative favorite. So for many Republicans and conservatives, they will have won the power to promote their agenda, but be much more able to predict their direction and goals than under the unpredictable Donald Trump. Expect the eventual abandonment of Trump by Republicans as the months go by into 2018. A Pence Presidency is likely coming sooner rather than later, with the best situation for Republicans being to resolve the matter before the midterm Congressional elections next year.

Notice how Feinman has learned the lesson of being too precise. No more exact number of days until End of Days; now it’s “sooner rather than later.” He still can’t grasp the possibility of “never.” If it turns out that removal from office is due to the two-term limit of the 22nd Amendment rather than the forcible removal through the 25th, I think Feinman and others who experienced PSTD on election night 2016 will become the Walking Dead, unable to function in the alternate universe of continual fake news that incredibly has become the real world. How long will MSBC persist in counting the days until our freedom anyway?

Feinman still has not given up hope.

Just 43 Republicans Joining with Democrats Could End Donald Trump’s Presidency (August 20, 2017)

The crisis that Donald Trump represents cries out for movement toward impeachment and trial to remove him from the Presidency, unless he agrees to resign, or Vice President Mike Pence, in league with Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, Senate President Pro Tempore Orrin Hatch, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and a majority of the Presidential Cabinet agree to remove Trump under the 25th Amendment Section 4, as mentally incompetent to stay in office. Neither of these seems likely at this stage, as we enter the eighth month of the Trump Presidency later in August.

As the goddess closes one door, she opens another. If the 25th Amendment is not going to work, what about outright impeachment? In the House of Representatives, only a majority is needed to impeach. Here Feinman wonders if the necessary number of Republicans will join the Democrats to make it so. He implicitly presumes that 100% of the Democrats will favor impeachment so the only issue is convincing a couple of dozen Republicans to defy party loyalty.

The centrists and moderate conservatives who are uncomfortable with Donald Trump are known as the Republican Main Street Partnership, estimated at 67 members of the House (about one out of every four Republicans) and a minimum of 4 in the Senate.

Feinman then names names. He names names in both the House of Representatives and the Senate as possible candidates to effect first impeachment and then conviction. With the Alabama Senate election, one less Republican vote is needed. I confess in my opinion, Feinman is grasping at straws. Plan A with Democrats winning the election failed. Plan B with Mike Pence taking the lead under the 25th Amendment is a non-starter and Plan C with Republicans in the House voting to impeach is an extreme example of wishful thinking. The only realistic way for impeachment to occur is if Democrats win the House in 2018 and even then Democrats may refrain from doing so. Wake up and smell the coffee.

I suspect Feinman has grudgingly learned to live in the real world. While he is not ready to accept the 22nd Amendment as the solution, he is ready to abandon the activation of the 25th Amendment as a likely event. As for impeachment, he now has to wait for the midterm elections. So much for the short presidency. He may even think that if Mueller produces a damning report or is fired before he can do so, then impeachment will occur. Hope still springs eternal for those trapped in the horror of the real world. We are witnessing the Democratic struggled to cope with reality one proposed solution at a time in the face of the success of the greatest con artist in American history who has a hold on a segment of the American public Democrats still ignore.

Then again, Feinman’s faith in Pence and the Republicans to do the right thing may not be misplaced after all. According to an article by McKay Coppins on “God’s Plan for Mike Pence” in the current issue of The Atlantic (I get the printed copy), there almost was a coup after the Access Hollywood tape went viral. Pence would have become the Republican presidential candidate then. He declined. Perhaps he recognized that the candidate had no shame and could not be bought off if it meant going on record for all eternity as being a loser. As events proved out, Pence was right.

Still the palace intrigue continues. Coppins reports:

But for all his aw-shucks modesty, Pence is a man who believes heaven and Earth have conspired to place him a heartbeat—or an impeachment vote—away from the presidency. At some crucial juncture in the not-too-distant future, that could make him a threat to Trump.

He suggests:

It’s not a matter of when Republicans are ready to turn on Trump,” the aide said. “It’s about when they decide they’re ready for President Pence.”

Suppose the Mueller report is damning. Suppose Mueller is fired. Suppose people are pardoned. Suppose Republicans are looking at a wave year that will make them a minority party in both chambers. Then suppose that they decide now is the time to remove the RINO President who is bringing the party down. The entire Democratic strategy for 2018 is running against the most unpopular President in American history. Suppose he is gone by the fall election season and the new President Pence is too new to have established a record yet. What happens then? Maybe Feinman got it right after all.

A Pence Presidency is likely coming sooner rather than later, with the best situation for Republicans being to resolve the matter before the midterm Congressional elections next year.

Survival cancels programming. That is the equation. Suppose the Republican Party decides its survival is at stake, what would it do then?

Happy New Year. It should be an interesting one.