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The United States of Trump and the United States of America: Is It Time to Separate?

Virginia Slavery Map 1861 by US Coast Survey before the split (Library of Congress)

America’s Third Civil War is accelerating and in unexpected ways. There has been a change in the tone of the discourse. I have been writing about the Third Civil War for years. During that time, people generally talked about the Culture Wars instead. Recently there has developed a more realistic concept of the stakes involved. The national effort to suppress the vote is only part of the changed circumstances. This time it is accompanied by a change in the certification of the winner where Trumpican state legislatures will make the decision. What is at stake now is not the relitigation of 2020 but the rigging of the vote for 2024 for a preordained result. There is an open awareness that the continued existence of the United States as a constitutional republic is now at stake.

THE THREE CIVIL WARS

These changes present the country with new challenges and therefore the need for new solutions. Let’s review the situation.

The First Civil War was an all-or-nothing conflict. Both the Loyalists and the Patriots engaged in a winner-take-all war. Each side sought to govern all 13 states or to maintain all 13 as colonies. The British might have been willing to lose the North if it could have kept the South but thanks to Cornwallis, we will never know.

The Second Civil War was different. The Confederacy was willing to settle for half-a-loaf, the same area the British might have settled for. It did not seek the conquest of the North or to impose its way of life on the Union. By contrast, the Union as befitting its name sought dominion over the country.

The Third Civil War at present is being waged along the lines of the first one. Each side wants to govern the entire country.

The question to be raised now is are the two sides willing to settle for half-a-loaf or is it winner take all?

SEPARATION ALREADY UNDERWAY

The question is not moot. The process of dividing into two countries already is underway. I am not simply referring to the well-known voting patterns with the infamous red and blue maps of Presidential elections. I am referring to how we live.

The first major example of the separation this century occurred with Medicaid. It was up to each state as to whether or not to participate in the Medicaid expansion. To the surprise of no one, the participation breakdown followed the presidential voting pattern with the Confederacy taking the lead in not joining the Union program.

Recent events have continued this pattern:

1. the lawsuit to the Supreme Court to invalidate the election
2. the support for the efforts of the loser to steal the election
3. the support for the insurrection on January 6
4. the lack of support for holding the instigator of the insurrection responsible
5. the lack of support for creating a January 6 commission to document the truth
6. the effort to restrict and suppress voting
7. the effort to rig how the votes are certified
8. the cessation of the $300 supplement.

One does not need a degree in statistics to see the consistency in approach taken by the states led but not limited to the Confederacy. This continuity of the South through the three civil wars renders meaningless Lincoln’s observation that a house divided can not stand. We are not a house divided, we are two houses and have been right from the start.

Polls indicate the roughly one-quarter of Trumpicans see a Storm coming when Satanic-worshiping pedophiles will finally get what is coming to them.

Polls indicate that roughly one-quarter of Trumpicans agree that violence will be needed to save the country.

Even as Michael Flynn walks back his support for a coup, the fact still remains that the question was asked with great seriousness and Flynn’s supportive response was welcomed by the QAnon audience, one of the leading religious groups in the United States now.

It should be noted that gun sales are skyrocketing. People are armed and ready for action.

2024 ELECTIONS

What will it take to light the fuse? What will it take to spark the fighting? What will be involved in transforming the mostly peaceful Civil War so far excluding January 6 to a more violent one?

Personally, my best guess as of now is the 2024 Presidential elections with 2022 serving as a preview. Neither side will accept the results of the election. We already know that. In this regard, 2020 was practice for 2024. What will happen when one side refuses to accept the results in 2024?

Scenario 1: Suppose despite all the voter suppression and rigged certification, Joe Biden wins re-election, what will Trumpicans do? One might think that under those circumstances it would be impossible for Trumpicans to declare that the election was stolen. Given all the changes they have implemented, how could they do so? Under normal circumstances that would be true. However if Biden wins again despite the Trumpican effort to rig the vote, Trumpicans will be desperate. At this point, what can they do to save the country? The answer will be a violent one. To anticipate and mitigate that possibility, if separation into the United States of America and the United States of Trump is already planned, the need for a violent resolution may be curtailed. Instead the division will be embraced.

Scenario 2: The voter suppression and rigged certification work and Joe Biden is defeated. If Trumpicans prevail in 2024, California and New York immediately will embrace John C. Calhoun and become champions of state’s rights. A lot will depend on who controls the Congress since we have seen how the losing side can attempt to derail the winner. For that matter, who knows what issues will be raised regarding the election of the Representatives and Senators.

At this point there are too many fluid variables to determine what the likely course of action will be except that it will be ugly.

THE WEST VIRGINIA SOLUTION

The key to minimizing the violence and uncertainty may be in following the example of West Virginia. In the Second Civil War, the people of what became West Virginia separated from the Confederate state of Virginia. They did not ask Virginia’s permission; they just did it and with the Federal approval.

We need to follow that precedent. The eleven Confederate states need to divide into their constituent parts – part Trumpican and part American. The boundary lines should not be that difficult to determine. There already are gerrymandered districts at the Congressional and state level. Voting results are known at the county level. As part of the post-2020 census reapportionment, the Confederate state legislatures effectively will divide their states into two groups. The next step is to take that division further by creating separate states based on those boundary lines drawn by the Confederates.

The result will be eleven new states. They will need names. They will need a constitution. It very well could be the existing state constitution with a name change will do. Either the Trumpican state or the Union state will need a new capital depending on where the current capital is located. The Congressional representatives will need to be allocated between the two states based on population. Each state will be entitled to two Senators so most likely the new state will elect two Senators in 2024 but that will vary from state to state.

Obviously there will be issues to decide. Where is the Department of Election located? Motor Vehicles? The State University campuses? The State prisons? Computer files will need to be transmitted. Pensions will need to be allocated. Each state will have its own voting guidelines. These are straightforward decisions given that both sides will welcome the separation.

BENEFITS OF THE WEST VIRGINIA SOLUTION

Consider the benefits of dividing the eleven Confederate states into their Trumpican and American components.

1. There will be no need to suppress the vote.
2. There will be no need to rig the winner certification process.
3. There will be no uncertainty about who will win in each state.
4. There will be a ratcheting down of tension since there is nothing to fight over.

Take Georgia as an example. Instead of 16 electoral votes in a winner-take-all battleground, there will be two states. Each will have 7 Representatives reflecting the virtual 50:50 split of the statewide vote in the presidential and Senate elections in 2020. Each will have two Senators. The total of 18 electors will be split 9:9 in 2024. This will represent a gain of 9 for the Trumpicans and loss of 7 for Biden. Of course, the results in Florida and Texas will favor Biden. To some extent, the process matches what Maine and Nebraska do now in allocating electoral votes by congressional district. The difference will be that state will have split into two. Temporarily there will be 61 states. Other states outside the Confederacy may wish to split into two parts as well increasing that number. That will last only until the Trumpican states separate from the United States (July 4, 2026?). In the meantime, all will be quiet on the voting front and the trench warfare will cease.

Confederates Seceded, Trumpicans Did Not: America’s Third Civil War

News research at Foxhub

During America’s Second Civil War, Confederates seceded from the United States. During the current civil war, Trumpicans remain in the United States and the halls of Congress even as they advocated for the overthrow of the democratic process. Confederates expressed no desire to rule over the North. By contrast, the Trumpicans want to govern the entire country including over people they don’t consider to be Real Americans. The result is a very awkward situation where people who do not recognize the legitimacy of the current President still vote on the legislative proposals submitted by him if only to oppose them. Imagine if this situation had existed during the Second Civil War.

THE 1864 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

According to Abraham Lincoln, the states of the Confederacy never legally left the Union. There was no Constitutional provision for such an action, so officially we always were one country. That argument is a weak one. After all there was no provision to declare independence from the British Empire either. Yet we did it. From the British perspective, we always were the 13 colonies. It was only with the Treaty of Paris that Britain recognized that we were in fact an independent country.

Now suppose, the Confederacy had decided to call Lincoln’s bluff. Suppose during the election of 1864, the Confederates had sent electors to Washington pledged to support Jefferson Davis for president of the United States. In that scenario, would the electors have been accepted for the vote in the Electoral College and certification by the Congress?

The odds are “no.” Still one wonders what hoops the Union would have gone through to deny the legitimacy of the Confederate electors while still proclaiming the existence of Union including those very same Confederate states. In fact, the recently captured-by-the-Union states of Louisiana and Tennessee did hold elections although their electors were not counted. Although the defeated candidate barely won any states, he did win 45% of the vote. If the Confederates had voted the election results would have been quite different. Here is where we could use a novelist/screen writer to tell the story of the alternate universe where the Union accepted the Confederate electors and Lincoln was defeated. After all, although Lincoln is considered our greatest President except in San Francisco and by the Republican Party, there was a lot of opposition to him during the war.

THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

If we flash forward to the present, the situation is quite different. Even though the Trumpican Party effort to steal the election was unsuccessful, they have paid no price for the attempt. The traitors who sought to subvert the election are far more welcome in Congress than Robert E. Lee ever was. In fact, for all intents and purposes it is business as usual on legislative matters. Trumpicans will still oppose the legislative agenda of the President. The margins are tight in both the House and especially the Senate as the recent tie-breaking vote by the Vice President demonstrates. There may be times when the Democrats wish the Trumpicans would leave just as their predecessors had in 1861. Unfortunately for the Democrats, the Trumpicans know better. In fact they are chomping at the bit in anticipation of regaining power in both houses of Congress in 2022.

Former Senator Jeff Flake had always suggested that there many closet Republicans within the Trumpican Party. On the outside, they toed the party line, but underneath they were still Republicans. They were well aware of the shortcomings of the immature-child president with no conscience, no ethics, no morals, who was incapable of telling truth and who only cared about himself. Still they feared the proverbial base and behaved as good little Trumpicans even if their heart wasn’t it.

Now thanks to a slew of votes we have a better sense of where the Congressional members of the Republican Party stand. We know who pledge their first loyalty to the loser President and who pledge their first loyalty to the Constitution.

1. The public action in support of the Supreme Court case to overthrow the election.
2. The public vote on certification of the electors.
3. The public vote on the impeachment of instigator of the insurrection to overthrow the government.
4. The secret ballot vote on the fate of the #3 person in House.
5. The public vote to remove a loser loyalist from two committees (not to expel her).

These all provide some insight into the validity of the claims by Flake and Rick Wilson among others. There still are substantial Republican majorities in both houses over the Trumpicans provided the vote is secret. In public votes, there are only a handful willing to cross the line (Note – two who did on Marjorie Taylor Greene had local issues regarding 9/11 and school shootings so their votes should not be construed to suggest their first loyalty is to the Constitution).

MTG VERSUS AOC

For two years now Foxhub has been touting the Squad with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the real power in the House and the Democratic Party. According to its version AOC is the face of the Democratic Party and Foxhub is sure to display it every opportunity they have.

By contrast in the real world, Nancy Pelosi runs a tight ship. She remains in charge. The insurrectionists unsuccessfully targeted her…and AOC too. Still the claim that the Squad runs the show is pure wishful thinking but apparently just what the Foxhub audience wants to believe.

The situation with Marjorie Taylor Greene differs She very rapidly has made herself the face of the Republican Party. In fact, the Democrats were quick to rebrand the party as QOP, the party of QAnon. One may expect that branding to continue right through the next election. After all, the Democratic Party has held no such vote on the merits of AOC. The QOP meanwhile has fully embraced MTG as its face.

There was a time when I thought QAnon and MTG would be the final straw. I knew the Trumpicans would never publicly disavow the Loser President. January 6 proved that in the House and will prove that in the Senate shortly.

But I thought such obeisance might not carry over to MTG even though she had his support. Nationwide, Trumpicans do not necessarily know her or have the same visceral commitment to her that they have to person who scammed over 2 million people to send him over ¼ billion dollars simply by asking for it, perhaps the largest con by number of people in the history of the United States. I really thought MTG might be the line they wouldn’t cross, the bridge too far, the final straw. Boy, was I wrong.

What does all this mean for the ongoing civil wars between the GOP and QOP? Will it have to become the TOP if MTG starts getting too much publicity for the recluse in-exile?  And then there is the original civil war between the two national parties. Despite all the talk about unity there won’t be any. Instead there will be a lot of resolutions and Vice President voting. Republicans retirements are creating openings in the Senate. Republican state legislators are ramping up their voter suppression even before the new Congressional district lines are drawn.  Electoral College delegates are transferred among the states. The playing field keeps changing. 2022 and the bicentennial of the 1824 presidential elections are shaping up as do-or-die battlefields where no election is accepted as legitimate by the loser.